December 2011
Special Issue: 2011 International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) Conference
Introduction: Sustainability and the Bioeconomy
J. Wesseler (Technische Universitat Munchen) P. Aerni (University of Bern)
1. The Lessons of Fermentation for the New Bio-Economy
D. Zilberman & E. Kim (University of California, Berkeley)
The modern bio-economy consists of biotechnology, green chemistry, and modern biofuels, and can learn from the experience of the “traditional” bio-economy that relied on processes such as fermentation to alcoholic drinks, foods, and medicine. The traditional bio-economy expanded the range of locations that humans could survive and what they could grow. Lessons from the traditional biotechnology are likely to apply to the modern one. The new bio-economy will require moving outside of our comfort zone and may require us to take calculated risks, but within a technological framework we can control and mitigate these risks. The evolution of the new biotechnology will encounter resistance, but its potential is so vast that it is likely to prevail.
2. Biofuel Policies and Carbon Leakage
D. Drabik & H. de Gorter (Cornell University)
Carbon leakage in the fuel market due to alternative biofuel policies is shown to have two components: a market leakage (or ‘indirect output use change’) effect and an emissions savings effect. We also distinguish between domestic and international leakage and show how omitting the former can bias leakage estimates. International leakage is always positive, but domestic leakage can be negative with a biofuel mandate. We show leakage due to a tax credit is greater than that of a mandate, while the combination of a mandate and subsidy generates greater leakage than a mandate alone. In general, one gasoline-equivalent gallon of corn ethanol is estimated to replace only 0.35 to 0.50 gallons of gasoline—not one (1.00) gallon as assumed by life-cycle accounting. Taking this market leakage effect into account, we conclude that corn ethanol does not meet the US minimum carbon savings threshold, irrespective of whether the effect of indirect land use change is taken into account.
3. An Economic Evaluation of US Biofuel Expansion Using the Biofuel Breakeven Program with GHG Accounting
A. Rosburg (University of Northern Iowa) J. Miranowski (Iowa State University)
We present results from an application of the Biofuel Breakeven program (BioBreak) to 14 US cellulosic ethanol markets that vary by feedstock and location. BioBreak estimates the economic costs of cellulosic biofuel production for each market and identifies the necessary conditions to sustain long-run markets. Based on current market conditions, our results suggest that long-run cellulosic ethanol production is not sustainable without significant government intervention or high long-run oil prices ($135-170 per barrel). Using life-cycle analysis for cellulosic ethanol and conventional gasoline, we extend the BioBreak program results to derive an implicit value of reduced greenhouse gas emissions embodied in cellulosic ethanol. For the markets considered in our analysis, sustaining cellulosic ethanol production is equivalent to valuing the reduction in CO2 equivalents between $141 and $282 per metric ton.
4. US Maize Yield Growth Implications for Ethanol and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
J. Miranowski (Iowa State University)
A. Rosburg (University of Northern Iowa) J. Aukayanagul (Iowa State University)
During the past half century, per-acre maize yields have increased due to improved cultivars, better management, and favorable weather.
Recent US biofuel legislation, e.g., revised Renewable Fuel Standard, has increased the demand for biofuel and added competition for available cropland. Growth in maize yield may alleviate the potential impacts, including greenhouse gas effects, of rising food, feed, and fuel demand. Using 1960-2009 maize yields for the United States and top maize-producing states, we test for structural breaks and develop yield trend and growth forecasts for 2030. Depending on the forecasting model, US maize yield ranges from 205 to 242 bushels per acre in 2030. Holding maize production constant at the 2009 level,
16-25 million acres could be shifted to other crop production. Maize yield forecasts are sensitive to model choice (linear trend vs. growth
rate) and time period (short- vs. long-run trends). Ultimately, maize yield growth and trends have important impacts on greenhouse gas emissions.
5. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential and Mitigation Costs of Biogas Production in Brandenburg, Germany
L. Scholz & A. Meyer-Aurich (Leibniz for Agricultural Engineering Potsdam-Bornim ) D. Kirschke (Humboldt University of Berlin)
This study analyzes the greenhouse gas mitigation potential and corresponding mitigation costs of biogas production in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The production of biogas is based on cattle slurry and maize (/Zea mays L/.) and is used to produce electrical and thermal energy. The impacts of the feedstock and storage facilities chosen, thermal energy use, and land use change on the mitigation potential and the mitigation costs were analyzed by evaluating different scenarios.
In the scenarios analyzed we found greenhouse gas emissions between 0.1 and 0.4 kg CO2-eq/kWhel, which is 22-75% less than the greenhouse gas emissions caused by the present energy mix in Germany. CO2 mitigation costs differ between 288 and 1,135€/t CO2-eq in the scenarios observed. Those costs are influenced by the variability of different substrates, utilization schemes, and the price development of one possible alternative means of production under consideration, namely wheat.
6. Balancing Agricultural Development Resources: Are GM and Organic Agriculture in Opposition in Africa?
A. Novy, S. Ledermann, C. Pray, & L. Nagarajan (Rutgers University)
Organic agriculture has been promoted vigorously by many civil and donor organizations engaged in agricultural development in Africa.
Certified organic products are grown in more than half of African countries, targeted mainly towards export markets. In contrast, adoption of GM agriculture has been met with skepticism in much of Africa, with only three African countries approving GM crops for commercial planting. In this article, we empirically tested several factors that may explain African attitudes toward GM and organic agriculture. To test these factors, we used a newly generated dataset on agriculture, trade, and development indicators for a subset of African countries. We found that African countries’ openness to GM agriculture is significantly predicted by variables for wealth, organic agricultural area, colonial legacy, past rejection of GM, and the percentage of the country under land protection. Interestingly, our analyses reveal that openness to GM agriculture is positively correlated with the abundance of organic agriculture. We also show that Europe has exerted significant influence on African acceptance of GM via colonial legacy and advisory positions.
7. Determinants of Adopting Imazapyr-Resistant Maize Technologies and its Impact on Household Income in Western Kenya
D.B. Mignouna, V.M. Manyong, J. Rusike, (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture , Tanzania) K.D.S. Mutabazi, & E.M. Senkondo (Sokoine University of Agriculture , Tanzania)
This study identifies the adoption determinants and causal impact of adoption of imazapyr-resistant maize (IRM) on income and poverty among maize farming households using a logistic model and Heckman selection-correction model. Results from a randomly selected sample of 600 households consisting of 169 adopters and 431 non-adopters reveal that combined specific household, farm, institutional, and technological factors influence the probability of adoption of the technology. The results also showed that adoption of IRM raises farm household income even after controlling for observable and unobservable household characteristics. Conclusions drawn from this study are that the use of IRM for Striga control is a reasonable policy instrument to raise small-farm income and reduce poverty among maize farming households.
8. Technical Efficiency and Environmental Impact of Bt Cotton and Non-Bt Cotton in North India
P. Mal, A.V. Manjunatha, S. Bauer, & M.N. Ahmed (Justus Liebig University Giessen, Germany)
Bt cotton technology has emerged as an advantageous alternative to traditional cotton varieties by inhibiting bollworm attack, thereby improving farm production and income. This study focuses on analyzing the technical efficiency and environmental impact (via insecticide
use) of Bt cotton farms compared to non-Bt cotton farms using the stochastic frontier approach and the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ), considering primary data from agriculturally progressive states of India. The results indicate that average technical efficiency is higher in Bt cotton farming. Roughly 80% of Bt cotton farms fall in the efficiency category of 80-95%; this percentage falls to 60% in non-Bt farms. In addition, Bt cotton demonstrates a lower EIQ value than non-Bt cotton, indicating less damage to the environment. The results can provide positive insights to the Indian Government for pushing this efficient technology towards expansion.
9. The Effects of Framing on Consumers' Choice of GM Foods
A. Heiman (Hebrew University, Israel)
D. Zilberman (University of California, Berkeley)
In this article, we explore the effect of framing statements on perceptions and choices of genetically modified vegetables (GMVs). In two experiments, consumers were exposed to either positive or negative statements about GMVs; asked to indicate the extent to which they agree or disagree with these statements; and, finally, choose between genetically modified (GM) and conventionally grown vegetables. We show that consumers are affected quite easily by the framing
(positive/negative) of statements.
The results of our experimental survey suggests that framing affects the perceptions of GM technology, the weight given to health benefit versus taste, and likelihood of selecting GM bell peppers (a hypothetical product). In particular, the results suggest that negative framing of the properties of biotechnology not only affected perception but also increased the weight assigned to health and decreased the weight assigned to taste. We further show that the main effects of knowledge and non-negative perceptions of the contribution of GM products to health increased consumers’ willingness to purchase GM bell peppers. Environmental and moral considerations were found to have little impact on GM selection, and gender was insignificant.
The actual choice of GM versus non-GM bell pepper was significantly affected by price. Negative framing tends to reduce the likelihood of choosing GM and positive framing tends to increase it. The last point suggests that wording and presentation of a genetically modified trait matter.
The concluding insights may help policymakers in formulating their campaigns aimed at increasing adoption of GM technology, which has the potential to solve food scarcity and nutritional deficits.
10. Sustainability and the Bioeconomy: Synthesis of Key Themes from the 15th ICABR Conference
S.J. Smyth (University of Saskatchewan)
P. Aerni (University of Bern)
D. Castle (University of Edinburgh)
M. Demont (AfricaRice)
J.B. Falck-Zepeda (International Food Policy Research Institute) R. Paarlberg (Wellesley College) P.W.B. Phillips (University of Saskatchewan) C.E. Pray (Rutgers University) S. Savastano (University of Rome-Tor Vergata) J.H.H. Wesseler (Technishe Universitat Munchen) D. Zilberman (University of California, Berkeley)
The International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) held its 15th annual conference near Rome, Italy in June 2011. The theme of the conference was sustainability, and this topic was addressed through numerous presentations from academia, government, and industry. Numerous presentations from developing countries highlighted the adoption benefits of the biotechnologies in these countries.
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