Pierre Lefebvre - Groupe Limagrain - France

July 2002

Where do you see the seed industry going in the next 5 to 10 years?
There could be another wave of acquisitions by large corporations from outside of the industry, that's quite conceivable. Inevitably, it would go hand in hand with a wave of mergers, leading to a greater concentration in the industry.

At the same time, new companies sprout up all the time, small entities usually started by seed professionals who leave larger companies in which they have become uncomfortable. Some crops lend themselves to this more than others. The vegetable sector is certainly a case in point: because of the large number of species, it is usually possible to find a new niche. It's much more difficult in the large crops such as soybeans, wheat etc. which require much larger acreages and more substantial set ups.

I do believe that the industry will move towards ever greater concentration with a decreasing number of actors. The barrier to entry is constantly being raised by the size of the investment necessary to get started and the escalating cost of increasingly sophisticated technologies.

During the last few months, I have observed with interest that many company are reassessing the size of their investment in cutting edge technologies because they have come to realize how difficult it is to get a return on such investments. In addition, new regulations are making it increasingly difficult and costly to bring new products to market and public opinion has slowed down acceptance of certain of these products. It is quite striking how often one hears about research programs and activities that have been downsized, canceled or put up for sale. It seems that, after a few years of euphoria, people are coming to their senses and realizing that the expected returns would never materialize. I wouldn't be surprised if some of today's main actors were to leave the field because they conclude that their investment won't return at the level they expected.

 
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Pierre Lefebvre can be reached at pierre.lefebvre@limagrain.com

 

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