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There could be
another wave of acquisitions by large corporations from
outside of the industry, that's quite conceivable. Inevitably,
it would go hand in hand with a wave of mergers, leading to a
greater concentration in the industry.
At the same
time, new companies sprout up all the time, small entities
usually started by seed professionals who leave larger
companies in which they have become uncomfortable. Some crops
lend themselves to this more than others. The vegetable sector
is certainly a case in point: because of the large number of
species, it is usually possible to find a new niche. It's much
more difficult in the large crops such as soybeans, wheat etc.
which require much larger acreages and more substantial set
ups.
I do believe
that the industry will move towards ever greater concentration
with a decreasing number of actors. The barrier to entry is
constantly being raised by the size of the investment
necessary to get started and the escalating cost of
increasingly sophisticated technologies.
During the last
few months, I have observed with interest that many company
are reassessing the size of their investment in cutting edge
technologies because they have come to realize how difficult
it is to get a return on such investments. In addition, new
regulations are making it increasingly difficult and costly to
bring new products to market and public opinion has slowed
down acceptance of certain of these products. It is quite
striking how often one hears about research programs and
activities that have been downsized, canceled or put up for
sale. It seems that, after a few years of euphoria, people are
coming to their senses and realizing that the expected returns
would never materialize. I wouldn't be surprised if some of
today's main actors were to leave the field because they
conclude that their investment won't return at the level they
expected. |