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Vegetables and Specialties
Yearbook -- Summary July 26, 2001
July 2001, VGS-284
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The
complete text of this report will be available about 5 working
days following this summary release.
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Lower Acreage and Production Expected for Many Vegetables in
2001
Lower harvested acreage is expected to reduce supplies for many
major vegetables in 2001. The reduced acreage comes from a
variety of reasons, ranging from last years oversupply creating
burdensome stocks and low prices, to rising production costs
that are at least partially due to energy and water shortages.
Major vegetable commodities that are experiencing these
reductions
include four major processing vegetables (tomatoes, sweet corn,
snap beans, and green peas), potatoes, and dry edible beans.
Most of these crops are likely to realize significant declines
in
production in 2001, which should lead to higher grower prices in
the coming year. In contrast, acreage for fresh-market
vegetables has increased in 2001, a response to stronger grower
prices since late last year.
Processors of five major vegetables (tomatoes, sweet corn, snap
beans, green peas, and cucumbers for pickles) expect to contract
for 1.23 million acres in 2001--down 10 percent from a year ago
(for comparable States). Most of the decline will come from
canning vegetables (down 13 percent), as processors respond to
burdensome inventories and weak wholesale prices. U.S. tomato
processors expect to contract for 9 percent fewer acres, while
several other major world producers (largely in the European
Union) anticipate slightly higher packs this year. Processors
also plan to reduce sweet corn contract area 4 percent with all
of the reduction in area for canning (down 9 percent).
Similarly, snap bean area is down 10 percent, with canning (down
26 percent)
accounting for the entire decline. Snap bean area for freezing
is expected to rise 35 percent from last seasons low level.
Contract area for green peas is expected to drop 27 percent as
area for canning (down 32 percent) and freezing (down 22
percent) each decline. Assuming average acreage losses and trend
yields this coming season, output of the five leading processing
vegetables could be 10 to 14 percent lower than a year ago and
total around 14 million short tons.
California produces 94 percent of the Nations processed tomato
products, and processors there report contracting for 9.2
million tons of processing tomatoes in 2001. This is 9-percent
less than
a year ago but is up from the 8.9-million tons forecast for
California in April. The increase over earlier expectations
largely reflects the acquisition and reopening of a closed plant
by a leading tomato paste manufacturer. Californias processing
tomato acreage is expected to drop 11 percent to 255,000 acres,
with average yield forecast at 36.08 tons per acre--just under
the record levels of the previous 2 years. Fresno (39 percent)
and Yolo (16 percent) counties represent more than half of the
total processing tomato area. The smaller domestic pack and
increased exports should help reduce stocks and strengthen
wholesale tomato product prices in the coming year. During the
first 4 months of 2001, tomato product export volume was up 17
percent from a year earlier with average value per unit down 5
percent.
Field preparation for processing tomatoes was slowed by wet
weather this spring. Planting started in early February, and as
of mid-March processing tomatoes were reported in good
condition. However, between mid-March and May, portions of the
crop were hit by hail and wind. In May, a heat wave with
temperatures over 100 degrees F. damaged some plants. Some of
these damaged plants were then hit by disease with a small
amount of area being lost and not replanted. Although
Californias harvest season began a week or two later than usual,
the remainder of the tomato crop is reported in good condition.
The first estimate of 2001 contract production for processing
green peas indicated a 29-percent decline from a year earlier to
374,370 short tons. Estimated area for harvest was down 27
percent, with acreage down in every major State except New York.
Despite cool, wet weather in Wisconsin and pockets of dry
weather elsewhere, green pea yields are forecast to be second
only to last years record high. Driven by higher stocks and
lower wholesale prices over the past year, the decline in green
pea output will be felt in both the canning and freezing
markets. Green pea production is expected to drop in all major
States, including Oregon (down 40 percent), Wisconsin (down 35
percent), and Washington (down 24 percent).
U.S. fall-season potato growers expect to harvest 9 percent
fewer acres in 2001. Reduced area for harvest is expected in
most States, including California (down 71 percent), Minnesota
(14 percent), Idaho (11 percent), Colorado (10 percent),
Washington (8 percent), and North Dakota (4 percent). Increased
acreage is expected in New York (up 8 percent) and Pennsylvania
(4 percent). During the March to May period, when most
fall-season potatoes were being planted, U.S. shipping-point
prices for all potatoes averaged $5.88 per hundredweight (cwt),
7 percent below a year ago. To reduce stocks and improve grower
returns, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) purchased
about 11.1 million cwt of potatoes this spring (at somewhat less
than $1 per cwt) through a diversion program.
Summer-season potato growers expect to harvest 4 percent fewer
acres this year, also the result of lower prices at the time of
planting. Per-acre yields are expected to rise slightly from a
year ago to 305 cwt per acre--the third consecutive
summer-season record. However, with a 4-percent reduction in
harvested area, summer potato production is expected to decline
3 percent. The summer crop typically accounts for close to 4
percent of all potato production, with Texas, California,
Colorado, and Missouri the leading States this year.
The lower grower prices for potatoes that have caused acreage
reductions in 2001 are the result of record-high potato
production last year, when a combination of larger harvested
area and record-high yields (for the second consecutive year)
pushed U.S. potato production up 8 percent to 516 million cwt.
This was the largest crop on record since the 499.3 million cwt
of 1996. Total domestic potato shipments remained about even
with a year earlier during calendar 2000 but have been running
just above a year earlier so far in 2001. Despite higher prices
in the U.S. market, import volume of fresh-market potatoes
(excluding seed) from Canada declined 18 percent in 2000.
However, the volume of frozen potato imports from Canada
continued to climb to another record high, rising 17 percent
from a year earlier. The preliminary season-average farm price
received for all 2000-crop potatoes is estimated at $4.95 per
cwt, down 14 percent from 1999/2000.
This spring, U.S. dry edible bean growers again reacted to large
stocks, slow exports, and low prices by reducing area for
harvest to an estimated 1.33 million acres--down 17 percent from
a year earlier and the lowest acreage since 1983. Harvested area
is expected to be down in each of the top six States, including
North Dakota (down 16 percent), Michigan (31 percent), Nebraska
(8 percent), Colorado (5 percent), Minnesota (33 percent), and
California (18 percent). Production is expected to decline for
the major bean classes, including pinto, navy, and black. During
the first 6 months of 2001, grower prices for dry beans averaged
2 percent above a year ago, breaking a string of three
consecutive annual declines. Export volume for dry beans during
the first 4 months of 2001 was up 4 percent from a year ago due
to sharply higher movement of navy (up 55 percent), Great
Northern (56 percent), and pinto (30 percent) beans. Among the
major export markets, sales increased to the United Kingdom,
France, and Mexico but declined to Japan and Canada.
U.S. sweet potato growers expect to harvest 93,100 acres this
fall--down 2 percent from a year ago but still the second
largest harvested area since 1985. If crop conditions remain
relatively
favorable this year, per-acre yields could improve from the
weather-reduced lows of the past two seasons and produce a crop
similar in size to a year ago (nearly 14 million cwt). Assuming
production is little changed in 2001, sweet potato per capita
use is expected to remain even with last years level of 4.4
pounds.
Reduced stocks (below last year and the average of the past 5
years) and slightly higher prices for dry green peas in the
Pacific Northwest are expected to result in increased acreage
and a larger crop this year. Dry edible pea area harvested is
estimated to be 16 percent higher than a year ago. In increasing
area, dry green pea growers were reacting to prices that have
averaged 3 to 4 percent above the lows of a year earlier. Nearly
all of the increase is in North Dakota (up 53 percent) with
smaller gains in Idaho (up 4 percent). Production of lentils is
likely to be trimmed 1 percent due to larger stocks and lower
prices. Despite a very limited domestic market and competition
from lower-cost world producers, production of peas and lentils
has been rapidly increasing outside of the traditional areas in
the Pacific Northwest since the mid-1990s. The Midwestern States
of Montana and North Dakota (with smaller volumes from Nebraska,
Minnesota, and South Dakota) account for most of this volume. In
2000, Midwestern dry green pea production was estimated to be
nearly as great as in the Pacific Northwest. Aside from
providing new markets for traditional field crop growers,
legumes such as peas and lentils are also beneficial in crop
rotations as soil conditioners.
Shipping-point prices for fresh-market vegetables have generally
been higher than a year ago during 2001. During the first half
of the year, prices received by U.S. commercial vegetable and
melon growers averaged 21 percent higher than a year earlier and
17 percent above 2 years ago. Shipping-point prices (unadjusted
for inflation) for fresh-market vegetables during the first
quarter
averaged 39 percent above a year earlier and were the highest on
record. Weather impacted vegetable growth and marketable
supplies during the first half of the year. In Florida, several
freezes at the start of the year reduced supplies and slowed
growth, while California experienced cool temperatures early
(including frost and hail damage in April) and then very hot
temperatures in May, which impacted growth and quality of leafy
crops and young plants. With harvest schedules disrupted, market
volumes fluctuated more than usual, resulting in higher
shipping-point prices during the first half of the year.
Second-quarter prices averaged the second highest on record for
that quarter. Shipping-point prices declined seasonally in late
June and July, as traditional summer supplies came into the
market from a variety of States.
This summer (largely July-September), fresh-market vegetable and
melon area for harvest is forecast to rise 2 percent over a year
ago. Much of the increased acreage is in New York, the
second-leading summer-season producing State, with 13 percent of
total harvested acreage, where harvested area is expected to be
up 13 percent from a year ago. The increase reflects both a
response to higher prices compared with the previous year for
many fresh vegetables in early 2001, and a recovery from reduced
summer vegetable area for crops such as sweet corn, which were
hindered by cool, wet weather in the spring of 2000. California,
the largest summer-season State, accounting for 47 percent of
this years summer-season area, reduced acreage for harvest 2
percent due largely to reduced carrot and tomato area.
Prospective area was up for 10 of the 15 major fresh-market
vegetables, with snap beans (9 percent), cabbage (6 percent),
sweet corn (6 percent), watermelon (5 percent), and cauliflower
(5 percent) gaining the most. Area was down for carrots (16
percent), honeydew melons (4 percent), and tomatoes (2 percent).
Summer carrot area is returning to average levels following last
summers high. Despite reduced area in California (where yields
exceed the national average) and a range of weather (from
excessive moisture to dryness) in various Eastern States, U.S.
fresh-market vegetable and melon shipments are expected to
remain strong this summer. With slower economic growth than a
year ago restraining demand, summer-season fresh-market
vegetable prices are expected to decline from their
second-quarter highs this year and average at least a tenth
below last summers highs.
In 2001, grower cash receipts from the sale of all vegetables
and melons are projected to remain near year-earlier levels.
Modestly higher annual-average shipping-point prices are
expected to produce a small rise in fresh-market revenue, which
should offset a reduction in the value of processing vegetables.
The 2000 estimate of grower cash receipts is $16 billion--up 3
percent from a year ago and the highest on record. This
represented about 17 percent of all U.S. crop receipts. In 2000,
higher prices led to increasing crop values for the 25 selected
fresh vegetables. This gain outweighed declining production
values for processing vegetables, dry beans, and potatoes. The
value of the 25 major fresh-market vegetables and melons rose 14
percent to $8.7 billion, while the 10 leading processing
vegetables fell 14 percent to $1.4 billion. The decline in
processing value was driven by a 27-percent drop in the value of
the processing tomato crop.
In 2000, despite a record-high potato crop, total U.S. vegetable
and melon output declined 2 percent. With the exception of
potatoes (up 8 percent) and fresh vegetables (up 1 percent),
production of all aggregate vegetable categories declined.
Processed vegetable output declined from the 1999 record high.
Increases in fresh vegetables were led by double-digit
percentage gains for artichokes, garlic, honeydew melons,
broccoli, head lettuce, and watermelon. The reduction in canning
vegetable production was led by a 15-percent drop in tomatoes.
Record-high yields and a small increase in harvested area drove
potato output to a record high in 2000, while burdensome stocks
and low prices pulled dry bean production down 20 percent.
Given reduced supplies of most vegetables and melons in 2000,
prices received by U.S. commercial vegetable and melon growers
recovered from their 1999 lows. The index of prices received by
growers for commercial vegetables (largely fresh-market)
increased 11 percent in 2000 due largely to higher summer and
fall-season prices. After reaching very low levels during the
first quarter, shipping-point prices averaged above a year
earlier for each of the final three quarters of 2000. Variable
weather conditions brought higher annual average prices for
broccoli (up 29 percent), celery (up 53 percent), head lettuce
(32 percent), and tomatoes (21 percent), which outweighed lower
prices for carrots (down 20 percent), asparagus (11 percent),
and snap beans (8 percent).
After declining in 1999, the index of retail prices for
fresh-market vegetables (including potatoes) rose 5 percent in
2000. Although potato prices declined 4 percent, increases were
noted for several major items, including lettuce, broccoli, and
tomatoes. With transportation and energy costs also continuing
to rise this spring, retail prices for fresh-market vegetables
averaged 9 percent above a year earlier during the first 6
months of 2001. Average retail prices for frozen vegetables
increased 5 percent during the first 6 months, largely
reflecting increased marketing costs while prices for canned
vegetables rose 2 percent.
In 2000/01, sales of U.S. mushrooms are expected to rise from
the record 867 million pounds sold in 1999/2000. Fresh agaricus
mushrooms in 1999/2000 accounted for 78 percent of all agaricus
mushroom sales volume and 86 percent of total agaricus value.
With processed mushroom import volume up 29 percent in 1999/2000
(returning to levels experienced prior to the institution of
dumping duties on several countries in early 1999), processing
mushroom sales volume fell 2 percent. Because of rising imports
and increased consumer preference for fresh mushrooms, sales of
domestically-produced processing mushrooms were 27 percent below
their 1992/93 peak and were the smallest since the 1988/89
season. The value of domestic mushroom sales totaled $867
million in 1999/2000, placing the crop fourth (following
potatoes, tomatoes, and lettuce) among all vegetable crops.
Shiitake, oyster, and other specialty mushrooms, combined with
agaricus Portobello- and Crimini-type mushrooms, now
account for $126 million in crop value--14 percent of all
mushroom sales.
In 2001, per capita vegetable and melon consumption is projected
to decline 2 percent from the 2000 record high. Reductions are
expected to occur across all major categories, including fresh-
market, canning, freezing, potatoes, and pulses. Potato use is
likely to decline with the expected smaller crop this year,
while reduced output of fresh market crops may also lead to
reduced per
capita consumption. Smaller reductions are anticipated in the
use of processing vegetables, as processors reduce output and
work down large stocks for items such as canned tomatoes.
In 2000, per capita use of all vegetables and melons increased 3
percent from a year earlier. Much of the gain stems from
increased use of potatoes (up 6 percent), due largely to the
record-large crop last fall and subsequent lower prices.
Increases were also noted for vegetables for canning and sweet
potatoes. Per capita use of fresh-market vegetables was up 3
percent from 1999, due primarily to the inclusion of production
estimates in 2000 for several crops previously unreported by
USDA. For a comparable set of crops however, per capita use of
fresh-market vegetables in 2000 was unchanged from a year
earlier. Significant increases were experienced in fresh
cabbage,
romaine/leaf lettuce, and bell peppers. These were offset by
reduced use for melons, broccoli, and tomatoes. Utilization of
both watermelon and cantaloup declined last year as growers
responded to low prices by reducing acreage and production.
Preliminary estimates of potato use indicate both fresh and
processing uses registered gains in 2000, with use for
dehydrating gaining the most. Detailed utilization data for the
2000 potato crop will not be available until September.
Per capita use of all processing vegetables (including potatoes
and mushrooms) totaled 225 pounds (fresh equivalent) in 2000, up
3 percent from a year earlier. Most of the gain was due to
increased use of processing potatoes. Canning vegetable use
(including potatoes and mushrooms) rose 2 percent to 107 pounds
per person despite a small decline in tomatoes--the largest
canning vegetable, which accounts for two-thirds of all canned
vegetable use. Most other canned vegetables recorded small gains
in consumption in 2000. Freezing use (including potatoes)
totaled
83 pounds, up 1 percent from 1999. On average, another 32 pounds
per capita of potatoes are processed into chips and dehydrated
products. In 2001, utilization of processed vegetables is
expected to decline 1 to 3 percent as potato use falls and
higher prices for several canned products limit movement.
In 2000, the strong U.S. dollar, large world supplies, and weak
demand in some key markets allowed the trade deficit in
vegetable, melon, and pulse crops to continue expanding. While
the value of U.S. exports increased 1 percent to $3.3 billion,
imports rose 3 percent to $4.1 billion. Exports last exceeded
imports in 1995. In 2000, U.S. vegetable, melon, and pulse
imports from Mexico increased 2 percent, but Mexicos share of
U.S imports of these items dropped from 46 to 45 percent. Mexico
has been losing market share to Canada over the past few years,
with imports from Canada rising 19 percent in 2000, driven
largely by fresh greenhouse vegetables, frozen potatoes, and
canned sweet corn. Canadas share of the U.S. vegetable and melon
import market rose from 21 to 24 percent. The value of canned
vegetable exports exceeded imports in 2000, as larger U.S.
processing tomato crops led to lower prices. In 2000, processed
tomato import volume fell 57 percent to a more usual level of
0.6 billion pounds (fresh-weight equivalent)--about 3 percent of
total domestic use. Over the previous 3 years, imports averaged
about 5 percent of processing tomato use and are projected to
account for about 4 percent in 2001.
In 2000, the United States exported nearly 8 percent of its
fresh-market vegetable and melon supplies (production plus
imports), up from 7 percent during the previous 3 years. On the
other side of the ledger, large domestic output and low market
prices helped reduce the import share of consumption to 14
percent of fresh vegetable supplies, compared with 15 percent a
year earlier. Despite lower prices and burdensome stocks, about
7 percent of canned vegetable supplies were exported in
2000--the same as a year earlier but down from 8 percent 2 years
ago. In 2000, with tomato product prices down due to larger
output in 1999, only about 8 percent of vegetables used in
canned form were imported, compared with 11 percent the previous
year and 7 percent in 1990. In 2000, nearly 9 percent of
vegetables for freezing (excluding potatoes) were exported--the
same as a year earlier but up from 6 percent in 1990. Dropping
slightly from 1999, imports (excluding potatoes) accounted for
19 percent of domestic frozen vegetable consumption last year,
with broccoli accounting for 41 percent of frozen vegetable
imports.
The net value of potato trade (export value minus import value)
eroded in 2000, totaling $268 million, down from $386 million in
1999. The value of potato and potato-product imports increased
19 percent to $500 million due primarily to continued
double-digit increases in frozen french fry imports from Canada.
On the export side, the value of 2000 potato and potato-product
exports fell 5 percent to $768 million due to a drop (down 63
percent) in potato flake exports. On a fresh-weight-equivalent
basis, the volume of all potato exports totaled 45 million cwt,
down 18 percent from 55 million in 1999. Frozen products
accounted for 23 million cwt, up 7 percent, while dried and
dehydrated products (excluding starch) returned to more normal
levels, dropping 59 percent and accounting for about 8 million
cwt. For the first 4 months of 2001, the volume of potato
imports dropped 21 percent with fresh and seed potatoes each
down and the pace of imports vastly slowed
for frozen french fries (up just 7 percent). At the same time,
export volume fell 1 percent due to reduced sales of chips,
seed, and flakes.
The value of U.S. vegetable exports to China and Hong Kong,
combined, (including potatoes, melons, pulses, mushrooms, and
vegetable seed) totaled $99 million in 2000, down 5 percent from
a year earlier. Six commodities accounted for two-thirds of the
vegetables exported to China and Hong Kong. The major items
exported were frozen french fries ($33 million), potato chips
($16 million), lettuce ($8 million), celery ($7 million), frozen
sweet corn ($5 million), and canned sweet corn ($5 million).
Import value from China and Hong Kong fell 7 percent to $133
million, with two-thirds of the total consisting of canned and
dehydrated products such as water chestnuts, dehydrated garlic,
and bamboo shoots.
Printed copies of the Vegetables and Specialties Situation and
Outlook Yearbook will be available in about 3 weeks. For more
information, contact Charles Plummer 202-694-5256. The text of
the report will also be available electronically via the ERS
website at www.ers.usda.gov.
Company news release
N3687
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