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April 19, 2001
SUMMARY
April 2001, ERS-VGS-283
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report
will be available electronically about 2 weeks following this summary
release.
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According to preliminary estimates, per capita use of all vegetables and
melons totaled 464 pounds in 2000--up about 2 percent from a year earlier.
Most of the gain stems from increased use of potatoes (up 6 percent), due
largely to the record-large crop last fall and subsequent lower prices.
Increases were also noted for vegetables for canning and sweet potatoes.
Per capita vegetable and melon use is projected to decline about 1 percent
in 2001 as potato use declines with the expected smaller crop this year.
Although fresh vegetable use could decline slightly due to reduced supplies
this past winter, little change is anticipated in the use of processing
vegetables (excluding potatoes) as processors reduce output and work down
stocks.
On the fresh-market side, significant increases in 2000 per capita use were
experienced in cabbage, romaine/leaf lettuce, and bell peppers. These were
offset by reduced use for melons, broccoli, and tomatoes. Utilization of
both watermelon and cantaloup declined last year as growers responded to
low prices by reducing acreage and production. Preliminary estimates of
potato use indicate both fresh and processing uses registered gains in
2000, with use for dehydrating gaining the most. Detailed utilization data
for the 2000 potato crop will not be available until September.
Processors of five major vegetables (tomatoes, sweet corn, snap beans,
green peas, and cucumbers) expect to contract for 1.18 million acres in
2001--down 14 percent from a year ago. Because of generally weak
wholsale prices, most of the decline will come from canning vegetables, with canners
contracting for 18 percent fewer acres. Assuming average acreage losses and
trend yields this coming season, output of the five leading processing
vegetables could be 12 to 16 percent lower than a year ago and total around
14 million short tons.
U.S. tomato processors intend to contract for 12 percent less tonnage in
2001. Contract area is expected to decline 14 percent to 263,800 acres,
with yields forecast to rise 2 percent this year. California, which now
accounts for about 95 percent of the U.S. processing tomato crop, expects
to produce 12 percent fewer tomatoes, with all other States projected to
produce only 2 percent less than a year ago.
This is the second consecutive reduction in the processing tomato crop
following the record-large 1999 crop. Although production was cut 15
percent last year, output was the sixth highest on record and exceeded
market needs. This resulted in a small addition to already burdensome
stocks. As a result, wholesale prices for tomato products sank to the
lowest levels since 1997 and were the third lowest since the late 1980s.
The average price for bulk tomato paste, the key raw ingredient used in the
manufacture of tomato products like sauces, soups, ketchup, and juice, was
down 9 percent from the previous year during the first quarter of 2000.
This spring, area for harvest of 13 selected fresh-market vegetables is
expected to be 8 percent above a year ago. Assuming average weather and
yields, available domestic supplies will likely exceed those of a year
earlier. Rising acreage for commodities such as cabbage, celery, tomatoes,
and cauliflower outweighed reduced area for eggplant, watermelon, honeydew
melons, and cucumbers. Spring-season melon acreage for harvest is expected
to be 9 percent lower than a year ago, with area for each of the three
major melons (watermelon, cantaloup, and honeydew) declining. Lower prices
a year ago, especially for watermelon and cantaloup, spurred growers in
most areas to cut spring melon acreage to the lowest level in several
years. Increased supplies for many fresh-market vegetables will likely
result in reduced shipping-point prices from the highs experienced during
the first quarter. As a result, April-June f.o.b. shipping-point prices are
expected to settle at or below the average of the past 5 years and remain
below the level of a year ago.
Planted area for the summer onion crop is expected to decline 3 percent
this year. All but two storage-type onion producing States are expected to
plant less. Among the non-storage States, onion acreage is expected to
decline 5 percent, with area in Texas, the third largest non-storage State,
down 27 percent. For the storage crop, which provides the bulk of the
Nations onions into the next spring, growers were encouraged by improving
prices last year, but are expected to exercise restraint when planting this
spring--cutting area 3 percent. Most States are expected to reduce acreage
but Colorado growers intend to increase area 4 percent--Colorado growers
had cut acreage 23 percent in 2000 because of financial losses. Growers in
Oregon, the top fresh-market storage onion State, expect to plant 3 percent
more area this year after dropping 18 percent a year ago. Combining this
increased area with average acreage losses and trend yields could produce
an Oregon onion crop second only to the 1999 record.
The 2001 winter-season potato crop is estimated at 4.0 million hundredweight (cwt), down 20 percent from 2000 and 2 percent below 1999.
Harvested area was down 18 percent from a year ago, and yields were down 2
percent--declining in both California and Florida. With heavy supplies of
potatoes on hand from the fall 2000 crop, growers planned for a small
reduction in winter-season production by decreasing planted acreage by 2
percent from the previous winter. However, heavy rains in Floridas
Homestead area during December virtually wiped out the crop. In total,
about 3,000 acres were abandoned in Florida, and yields on remaining fields
were down nearly 20 percent from a year ago. The combination of lost
acreage and reduced yields have Florida output estimated at 58 percent of
last years level. In California, winter production this year is estimated
to be just 3 percent below a year ago, due entirely to reduced yields.
As exports of french fries continue to rise, so do french fry imports from
Canada. Domestic demand for french fries in the United States has increased
steadily over the past three decades, and an increasing portion of this
demand is being met by Canadian processors. Since 1989, imports of fries
from Canada have increased an average of 25 percent per year. Canadian-
produced fries currently account for about 13 percent of all fries consumed
in the United States, up from about 2 percent in 1989. In 2000, total fry
imports from Canada were nearly 1.1 billion pounds, up 17 percent from 1999
and were just 2 percent less than total U.S. french fry exports. With
Canadian processing capacity continuing to expand, the United States could
become a net importer of french fries for the first time in 2001.
U.S. sweet potato growers have indicated they will reduce area planted 1
percent in 2001. Barring any weather-related disasters this season, average
acreage abandonment and a return to long-term trend yields (159 cwt/acre)
could place 2001 U.S. sweet potato production as high as 14.7 million cwt.
That would be the largest crop since 1982, and would be 8 percent above a
year ago. Grower prices would likely fall, but with good domestic and
export demand, the season average price might not drop much below $15 per
cwt. However, if sweet potato yields do not follow trend and instead
maintain the recent 3-year average (147 cwt/acre) level, production would
be about the same as last year, with prices potentially rising to a
forecast range of $15 to $16 per cwt.
Because of continued low prices (the lowest since the 1980s), 2001 U.S. dry
bean output is expected to decline from last year's level. USDA's
Prospective Plantings report indicated that dry bean growers plan to seed
17 percent fewer acres this spring. If realized, planted area of 1.453
million acres would be the smallest since 1983. With the exception of
Idaho, all major producing States have indicated substantial reductions in
area this year. Michigan growers intend to plant 200,000 acres, 30 percent
less than a year ago and the lowest acreage on record (records began in
1909). During the first quarter of 2001 (Jan. - Mar.), U.S. grower prices
for all dry beans were 2 percent below the low levels experienced a year ago
and were the lowest since 1988. With burdensome stocks, this was the fourth
consecutive year that grower prices have declined from the previous year,
having dropped at least 11 percent in each of the past 3 years. ERS
forecasts suggest total dry bean output could drop from 26.44 million cwt a
year ago, to a range of 21 to 23 million cwt this year.
Printed copies of the Vegetables and Specialties Situation and Outlook
report will be available in about 2 weeks. This issue contains two special
articles. The first is titled Factors Affecting Onion Consumption in the
United States and the second is titled The U.S. Lettuce and Fresh-Cut
Vegetable Industries: Marketing Channels, Sales Arrangements, Fees, and
Services. For more information, contact Gary Lucier 202-694-5253. The text
of the report will also be available electronically via the ERS website at
www.ers.usda.gov.
Company news release
N3473 |
