April,  2001

Examines world and U.S. production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices for wheat. Includes special articles related to the wheat industry.

Ending Stocks Down, Prices To Rise in 2001/02

Wheat farmers responded to unfavorable planting conditions, particularly in parts of the Central and Southern Plains, by reducing winter wheat plantings for the 2001 crop by 2 million acres, down 5 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1971. Spring wheat (including durum) plantings are expected to rise due to lower winter wheat plantings in some areas, especially Montana, and more attractive prospective returns relative to competing crops. The calculated 2001 harvested area, based on the 5-year average by State, is reduced a half-million acres due to late plantings and emergence and currently poor conditions of some of the wheat in the Southern Plains.

Total wheat production for 2001/02 (June/May) could decline about 4 percent, assuming an average wheat yield of 40.5 bushels per acre, based on the average of 1996-2000 yields by State. Coupled with smaller beginning stocks, the total supply would be about 6 percent below the current marketing year that ends on May 31. Total use is forecast down slightly because of reduced exports and smaller feed and residual use. However, the smaller use will still exceed production, and ending stocks will decline. Even so, stocks will remain relatively large, and the average price received by farmers will likely be below $3.00 again in 2001/02.

For 2000/01, U.S. wheat supplies are expected to drop 2 percent to 3,268 million bushels. Total disappearance is forecast to rise about 2 percent from 1999/2000, the result of higher projected domestic use and exports. Use will exceed production, and stocks are forecast down 12 percent from 1999/2000. The season-average farm price is projected to range between $2.60 and $2.70 per bushel.

U.S. wheat exports are forecast to increase slightly because of reduced competition from the European Union, Kazakstan, Australia, Eastern Europe, Turkey, and others. Some increased competition is expected from Argentina, India, and Pakistan. The top markets for U.S. wheat exports, including Egypt, Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines, are expected to be little changed. 

The summary is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of WHEAT YEARBOOK (WHS-2001) is available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat/

Printed copies of the Wheat Yearbook will be available.
For further information, contact Gary Vocke (202) 694-5285. 
This issue contains two special articles:  
- "The Effects of the Federal Crop Insurance Program on Wheat Acreage," and 
- "Organic Wheat Production in the United States: Expanding Markets and Supplies."

USDA/ERS information
N3432