VEGETABLES AND SPECIALTIES -- SUMMARY April 21, 2000
April 2000, ERS-VGS-280
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report
will be available electronically about 2 weeks following this summary release.
Per capita use of all vegetables and melons totaled 454 pounds in 1999--up
9 pounds (2 percent) from a year earlier. Large supplies and lower prices
led to a 5-percent increase in fresh vegetable use. Increases were also
noted for vegetables for freezing, potatoes, and dry beans. Per capita
vegetable and melon use is projected to remain constant in 2000, as reduced
fresh-market use is offset by increased use of processed products.
On the fresh-market side, significant increases in 1999 per capita use were
experienced in cauliflower (up 40 percent), head lettuce (15 percent),
broccoli (15 percent), cantaloup (9 percent), and watermelon (8 percent).
Very few fresh-market vegetables experienced reduced use last year, with
declines in cabbage (down 9 percent), leaf/romaine lettuce (7 percent), and
tomatoes (1 percent) most noteworthy. Utilization of cantaloup, which has
enjoyed increasing popularity in the past few years, increased again in
1999, as supplies from both domestic and import sources rose.
Per capita use of all processing vegetables (including potatoes and mushrooms) totaled 222 pounds (fresh equivalent) in 1999, down 1 percent
from a year earlier. The decline was due to a 3-percent drop in use of
canning vegetables, which outweighed a 4-percent gain in vegetables used in
frozen products (including potatoes). Canning use (including potatoes and
mushrooms) totaled about 107 pounds per person, with freezing use (including potatoes) at 86 pounds. Another 29 pounds per capita of potatoes
are processed into chips and dehydrated products. In the year ahead, utilization of processed vegetables is expected to increase 2 percent,
spurred largely by lower prices for canned tomato products.
Processors of five major vegetables (tomatoes, sweet corn, snap beans,
green peas, and cucumbers for pickles) expect to contract for 1.37 million
acres in 2000--down 3 percent from a year ago. Most of the decline will
come from tomatoes, with processors contracting for 13 percent fewer acres.
Assuming average acreage losses and trend yields this coming season, output
of the five leading processing vegetables could be 8 to 12 percent lower
than a year ago and total around 16 million short tons.
In general, the expected 1-percent decline in canning contract acreage
will not likely cause much change in wholesale prices for canned vegetables this
coming fall, as weaker corn and pea prices offset expected increases for
tomato products. During the first quarter of 2000, wholesale prices for
canned vegetables averaged 1 percent above a year earlier, largely reflecting the record tomato crop last year. Despite smaller stocks, total
contract area for freezing vegetables declined 6 percent. The resulting
smaller supplies, together with consistent demand may cause wholesale prices for frozen vegetables to increase over the coming year. During the
first quarter of 2000, frozen vegetable wholesale prices were unchanged
from a year earlier.
This spring, area for harvest of 13 selected fresh-market vegetables is
expected to be about 1 percent below a year ago. Assuming average weather
and yields, available domestic supplies will remain near those of a year
earlier. Rising acreage for commodities such as snap beans, sweet corn,
carrots, and bell peppers was outweighed by sharply reduced area for
cauliflower, cabbage, and broccoli. With fresh-market vegetable imports
expected to decline, largely as a result of low domestic prices, total
supplies are expected to be lower this spring than a year ago. This will
give a small boost to April-June f.o.b. shipping-point prices.
For fresh-market asparagus, a combination of stronger domestic shipments
and import pressure from Mexico and Peru this past winter pulled down shipping-point prices 10 to 20 percent from a year earlier. This spring,
increased area in California and good yields elsewhere are expected to
boost domestic production. Although the seasonal peak for domestic
asparagus shipments occurs in the spring, off-season asparagus demand is on
the rise. Fresh asparagus import volume increased 30 percent in 1999, with
three-fourths entering during the first and fourth quarters, when domestic
supplies are low.
Spring onion area for harvest is expected to rise 2 percent, with rebounding acreage in Texas outweighing a large drop in Georgia. Favorable
weather this season is contributing to reduced acreage losses compared with
a year ago when 7 percent of planted area was abandoned. Given good quality
and strong demand, the spring onion market is expected to show some
improvement over last year. However, larger supplies may keep a lid on
price increases.
The 2000 winter-season potato crop is estimated at 4.7 million hundredweight (cwt), up 16 percent from a year ago and 58 percent above the
weather-affected crop of 1998. Harvested acreage was down 4 percent from a
year ago, but was outweighed by improved yields (up 21 percent), leading to
the largest winter-season crop since 1967. All of the increase came from
California, which experienced an excellent growing season, resulting in
record winter-season yields for the State. Florida also experienced a good
growing season, but production was lower than a year ago due to a 14- percent reduction in harvested acreage.
The first estimate of the 2000 spring potato crop is 21.4 million cwt, down
15 percent from comparable totals last year but 1 percent above 1998. Area
for harvest is forecast at 80,800 acres, down 4 percent from last year, and
10 percent below 1998. Per-acre yield is forecast to average 264 cwt, down
12 percent from last year's comparable yield but up 13 percent from the low
of 2 years ago. Grower/shipper prices for the 1999/2000 crop are expected
to average above the $5.56 per cwt received in 1998/99 and would be the
highest in the past 4 years. Thus, given the incentive of stronger potato
prices this past season and a lack of attractive cropping alternatives, the
Economic Research Service (ERS) projects that fall-season potato growers
could plant 1 to 4 percent more acreage than a year ago.
U.S. sweet potato growers intend to plant slightly more area in 2000 than a
year ago. With crop losses last fall in North Carolina setting the market
tone, U.S. season-average prices were about 18 percent above a year earlier. Given average growing weather, yields should improve and
combine with continued strong acreage to push production well above a year ago.
With larger supplies, market prices for sweet potatoes are expected to
decline in the year ahead.
Preliminary indications point to a 9-percent decline in dry bean area this
year, with acreage in Minnesota, Nebraska, Idaho, and California down considerably. During January to March, U.S. grower prices for all dry beans
averaged 14 percent below the low levels experienced a year ago. This was
the third consecutive first-quarter decline, having dropped about ten percent in each of
the past 2 years. Producers were coming off a year featuring the fourth largest planted area in the
past 55 years and the lowest prices since 1992. Grower prices were almost universally low
across every class of dry beans. However, with low prices this year encouraging
larger domestic use and improved export volume, reduced stocks and improved
dry bean prices are expected in the coming months.
This issue contains a special article entitled "Factors Affecting Dry Bean
Consumption in the United States." The article explains the distribution
of dry bean consumption across different marketing sectors, geographic
regions, or population groups.
Printed copies of the Vegetables and Specialties Situation and Outlook
report will be available in about 2 weeks. For more information, contact
Gary Lucier 202-694-5253. The text of the report will also be available
electronically via the ERS website at www.ers.usda.gov. USDA-ERS
news release
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