Ottawa, Canada
May 19, 2009
USDA/FAS GAIN report CA 9025
Report Highlights:
Statistics Canada released
the results of the March Intentions of Principle Field Crop
Areas on April 24, 2009. The planting surveys suggest that
the total area seeded to grains (wheat, barley, corn, and
oats) in 2009/2010 will be only marginally less than the
previous crop year; however, a return to normal yields is
expected to result in decreased in production in 2009/2010.
Post forecasts 2009/2010 Canadian total production of wheat,
barley, corn and oats at 50.7 million metric tons (MMT) in
2009/2010, down 8% from 55.3 MMT in 2008/2009.
General Information
Statistics Canada released the
results of the March Intentions of Principle Field Crop Areas on
April 24th, 2009. The planting/seeding intentions survey results
suggest that the area seeded to total wheat will be similar to
the area planted to wheat the previous year. A nearly 20%
decline in area intended to be seeded to winter wheat and a 5%
decline in area intended to be seeded to durum is off-set by a
6% increase in area intended to be seeded to spring wheat. Area
seeded to barley is expected to increase by 1% from the pervious
crop year. The area seeded to corn is expected to increase 4%
while the area seeded to oats is expected to decrease almost 10%
from the previous year. The planting surveys suggest that the
total area seeded to grains (wheat, barley, corn, and oats) in
2009/2010 will be only marginally less than the previous crop
year; however, a return to normal yields is expected to result
in decreased in production in 2009/2010. Post forecasts
2009/2010 Canadian total production of wheat, barley, corn and
oats at 50.7 million metric tons (MMT) down 8% from 55.3 MMT in
2008/2009.
Wheat, barley, corn, and oats production forecast
Post’s revised production forecast is based on the results
of the March 2009 seeding intentions surveys. Wheat forecasts
have increased significantly from the April 7, 2009 outlook,
while oats production forecasts have decreased significantly
further.
Despite lower prices and high world
wheat supplies, high input costs (such as fertilizer) as well as
rotational limitations may be having a greater impact on
discouraging Canadian prairie farmers away from canola
production and towards wheat production than originally
anticipated. In addition, at the time of the survey, flooding
was occurring in North Dakota wheat country and some Canadian
farmers may be thinking that a rally in wheat prices would be
possible should the conditions in North Dakota persist and make
planting wheat impossible. While the seeding intentions suggest
that acreage is expected to remain at levels similar to the
previous crop year, a return to average yields is expected to
reduce wheat production 9% in 2009/2010 from 2008/2009 levels.
Oats production is likely being
discouraged due to slow demand that is a result of flush
supplies on the North American market. Production is forecast to
fall nearly 20% in 2009/2010 from 2008/2009 levels.
For more detailed information, the April
7, 2009 Canada Grain and Feed Annual Gain Report is available at
the following web address:
GAIN report CA9020
Full survey results as well as information on the methodology
and data followed for the Canadian seeding intentions survey can
be found at the following website:
Field Crop
Reporting Series – March Intentions of Principle Field Crops
Areas, Canada 2009 |
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