Ottawa, Canada
August 7, 2009Source:
Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Grains and oilseeds outlook
For 2009-10, total
production is forecast by AAFC to decrease by 18% to 59.3
Mt, due to higher abandonment and below-normal yields
resulting from cool temperatures, delayed seeding across
western Canada and the abnormally dry western prairies.
Total supply is forecast to fall by 11% as large carry-in
stocks moderate the decline in output. Consequently,
domestic use and exports are forecast to decline. Carry-out
stocks are forecast to fall by 25% to 9.9 Mt, well below the
10 year average of over 13 Mt. Prices are expected to be
lower than in 2008-09 for all crops except canola and rye.
Factors to watch include the higher than normal risk of
frost damage, because of the delayed crop development, which
could result in a further decline in yields and a reduction
in crop quality.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2009/pdf/27111g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook
(dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary
seed, sunflower seed, buckwheat)
For 2009-10, total area
seeded to P&SC in Canada is expected to rise marginally from
2008-09. The areas seeded to lentils, chickpeas and mustard
seed are expected to increase while areas seeded to dry
peas, dry beans, canary seed and sunflower seed are expected
to decrease. Total production in Canada is forecast to be
fall by 10% to 4.8 million tonnes (Mt). However, total
supply is expected to fall by 5% to 5.6 Mt, as higher
carry-in stocks partially offset the lower output. Exports
are forecast to fall and domestic use to rise slightly.
Total carry-out stocks are expected to fall from 2008-09,
largely due to lower expected dry pea stocks. Average prices
are generally forecast to fall, but remain historically
high, except for canary seed which is forecast to average
the same as 2008-09. Factors to watch include the higher
than normal rise of frost damage, which combined with
delayed crop development, would result in a significant
decline in yields and quality.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2009/pdf/27111p.pdf |
|
