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Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Grains and oilseeds outlook

Production of grains and oilseeds (G&O) for 2008-09 in Canada is estimated by Statistics Canada at 65 million tonnes (Mt), up from 61 Mt in 2007-08. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the harvest period and that crop quality will be normal. Slightly above trend yields are expected for most crops in western Canada, with normal yields expected for eastern Canada.

Supply is forecast to increase only slightly because of significantly lower carry-in stocks. Total G&O exports are forecast to decrease, with lower exports of coarse grains more than offsetting increased durum, wheat and canola exports. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase slightly but remain at a historically low level. World and Canadian prices for G&O are expected to remain historically high due to strong demand and low world carry-in stocks. The main factors to watch are: expected yields and quality in western Canada, harvest conditions, volatility of commodity markets and crop prospects for US corn and soybeans.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/23559g.pdf

Pulses and special crops outlook
(dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed, buckwheat)

For 2008-09, total production of pulse and special crops in Canada is expected to rise slightly to 5.0 million tonnes (Mt), as higher production for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, mustard, canary and sunflower seed are partly offset by lower production for chickpeas. Statistics Canada (STC) has provided estimates of area and production for most of the pulse and special crops for 2008, but for some crops the area and production has been forecast by AAFC.

Total supply is expected to rise marginally as the increase in production is partially offset by lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to remain unchanged, while domestic use is expected to rise marginally. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise, but remain historically low for most crops. Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for 2008-09 for all pulse and special crops, with the exception of dry peas. The other main factors to watch are crop conditions in the US, the EU, Australia, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/23559p.pdf

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