Ottawa, Canada
March 7, 2008Source:
Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Grains and oilseeds outlook
For 2007-08, record or
near-record prices are projected in Canada for all crops, due to
strong international prices. Canadian exports of grains and
oilseeds (G&O) are forecast to fall by more than 10%, mainly due
to lower exports of wheat. Total domestic use is expected to
decline slightly, with reduced feed use more than offsetting
increased food and industrial use. Carry-out stocks of G&O are
forecast to fall to the lowest level in over 30 years.
For 2008-09, the areas seeded to wheat, durum, canola,
flaxseed and soybeans are forecast to increase while the areas
of oats, corn, and summerfallow are forecast to decrease. It is
assumed that precipitation will be normal for the growing and
harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate and quality will
be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern
Canada. Due to higher area and yields, production of G&O in
Canada is forecast to increase to about 65 million tonnes (Mt)
from 60 Mt for 2007-08. Exports are projected to increase due to
increased supply. Domestic use is forecast to increase as
sharply higher food and industrial
use, due to strong demand for biofuel, more than offsets lower
feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase slightly but
remain historically very low. World and Canadian prices for G&O
are expected to remain historically strong, despite higher
production, due to strong demand and low carry-in stocks. The
main factors to watch are: the condition of the US winter wheat
crop, weather conditions during seeding, petroleum and
fertilizer prices, exchange rates, money market activity, and
growing conditions in the major importing and exporting
countries.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/22004g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook
For 2007-08, total Canadian
exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks of pulses and special
crops are forecast to decrease from 2006-07 due to lower supply.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to be low for most crops. Average
prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to
increase from 2006-07 for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, mustard
seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, but decrease for
chickpeas.
For 2008-09, total area seeded to pulses and special
crops in Canada is forecast to increase by 7% from 2007-08, with
increases for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed and canary seed,
decreases for dry beans and chickpeas, and a stable area for
sunflower seed. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal
for the growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment
rate and quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for
both western and eastern Canada. Total production in Canada is
forecast to increase by 9% to 4.93 million tonnes (Mt). Total
supply is expected to increase by 3% to 5.45 Mt, as lower
carryin stocks partly offset the increase in production.
Exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to
increase slightly due to the higher supply. Average prices are
forecast to increase for lentils, dry beans, chickpeas, mustard
seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, but decrease for dry peas.
The main factors to watch are weather conditions, especially
precipitation, during the growing and harvest periods in Canada.
Soil moisture reserves are good in eastern Canada, but range
from dry to good in western Canada. Other factors to watch are
the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar
and other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing
conditions in major producing regions, especially India,
Pakistan, Mexico, United States, European Union, Turkey and
Australia.
xFull report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/22004p.pdf |
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