Ottawa, Canada
April 28, 2008Source:
Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Grains and oilseeds outlook
Statistics Canada’s (STC) seeding
intentions survey for 2008-09 indicated that the total area
seeded to grains and oilseeds (G&O) is expected to increase
marginally from 2007-08. Summer fallow area is expected to fall
to a record low level. The area seeded to wheat and oilseeds are
forecast to increase while the area for coarse grains is
expected to decrease. The actual seeded area may differ from the
intentions because of changes in the market outlook and expected
prices, producer reaction to the STC report and soil moisture
conditions at the time of seeding. It is assumed that
precipitation will be normal for the growing and harvest
periods, and that the
abandonment rate and quality will be normal. Trend yields are
assumed for eastern and western Canada. Except for corn, average
yields are expected to be higher than last year.
Due to higher area and yields, production of G&O in Canada is
forecast to increase to 63.5 million tonnes (Mt) from 60 Mt for
2007-08. Exports are projected to increase due to higher supply
and strong world demand. Total domestic use is forecast to
decrease as sharply higher food and industrial use, due to
strong demand for biofuel, is more-than offset by lower feed
use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease and remain
historically very low. World and Canadian prices for G&O are
expected to remain historically high due to strong demand and
low carry-in stocks. The main factors to watch are: the
condition of the US winter wheat crop, weather conditions in the
major importing and exporting countries, petroleum and
fertilizer prices, exchange rates, fund activity, and
export policies in competing countries.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/22444g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook
(dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary
seed, sunflower seed, buckwheat)
For 2008-09, total area
seeded to pulse and special crops in Canada is expected to
decrease by 3% from 2007-08, as lower areas for lentils, dry
beans, chickpeas, canary seed and sunflower seed are partly
offset by higher areas for dry peas and mustard seed. Statistics
Canada’s (STC) seeding intentions survey, conducted during March
20-31 and released on April 21, provided estimates for most
pulse and special crops by province, but in some cases the area
seeded has been forecast by AAFC. The actual seeded areas may
differ from the intentions due to changes in the market outlook
and expected prices, producer reaction to the STC seeding
intentions report and soil moisture conditions at the time of
seeding. To date, only a small amount of seeding has been
completed. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for
the growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate
and quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both
western and eastern Canada.
Total production in Canada is forecast to decrease
marginally to 4.5 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected
to decrease slightly due to lower carry-in stocks and
production. Although exports are forecast to decrease, domestic
use is expected to remain unchanged. Carry-out stocks are
expected to decrease to historically low levels for most crops.
Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast
to increase for lentils, dry beans, mustard seed, canary seed,
sunflower seed and chickpeas and decrease for dry peas. The main
factors to watch are weather conditions, especially
precipitation, during the seeding, growing and harvest periods
in Canada. Other factors to watch are ocean shipping rates and
growing conditions in major producing regions, especially India,
United States, European Union, Turkey and Australia.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/22444p.pdf |
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