Ottawa, Canada
March 12, 2007
Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada Bi-weekly bulletin
Grains and oilseeds outlook
For 2006-07, the supply of grains
and oilseeds (G&O) in Canada reached a record as high carry-in
stocks more-than offset lower production. Exports are forecast
to increase by 14% mainly because of higher exports of wheat.
Total domestic use is expected to rise, partly due to increased
use of corn and wheat for ethanol production. Carry-out stocks
of G&O are forecast to be significantly lower than last year.
Canadian prices for all crops are expected to be higher than in
2005-06 due to strong prices in the US. The Canadian dollar is
expected to average stronger than in 2005-06.
For 2007-08, area seeded to
canola, durum, barley, corn and oats is forecast to increase,
but area seeded to wheat ex-durum, flaxseed, and soybeans is
forecast to decrease, as is the area in summer fallow. Due to
higher area and yields, production of G&O is forecast to
increase to 67.2 million tonnes (Mt) from 64.4 Mt for 2006-07.
However, the total supply is forecast to decline due to lower
carry-in stocks. Although exports are projected to decline, food
and industrial use is forecast to increase significantly due to
the strong demand for biofuel. Carry-out stocks are forecast to
decrease slightly. World and Canadian wheat prices are expected
to increase, despite a return to normal growing conditions in
the US and Australia. World and Canadian prices for corn and
oilseeds are
expected to increase on support from the growing biofuel sector
in the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). Canadian
feed barley and oat prices are forecast to decline, mainly due
to higher domestic production. The main factors to watch are:
the condition of the US winter wheat crop, weather conditions,
especially precipitation, during the seeding and growing periods
in Canada, petroleum prices, exchange rates, and growing
conditions in the major importing and exporting countries.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2007/pdf/18670a.pdf
Pulse and special crops outlook
For 2006-07, total Canadian
exports and carry-out stocks of pulse and special crops are
forecast to decrease from 2005-06 due to lower supply and higher
domestic use. Average prices, over all types, grades and
markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, dry
beans, chickpeas, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed,
and be stable for buckwheat.
For 2007-08, total area seeded to
pulse and special crops in Canada is forecast to increase
marginally from 2006-07, as increases for chickpeas, mustard
seed, canary seed and sunflower seed are mostly offset by
decreases for dry peas, lentils and dry beans. It is assumed
that precipitation will be normal for the growing and harvest
periods, and that the abandonment rate and quality will be
normal. Trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern
Canada, as soil moisture reserves are good in most areas. Total
production in Canada is forecast to increase slightly to 4.49
million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected to decrease by 11%
to 5.34 Mt, as lower carry-in stocks more than offset the
increase in production. Exports, domestic use and carry-out
stocks are forecast to decrease due to the lower supply.
Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to historically low
levels for most crops. Average prices, over all types, grades
and markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, dry
beans, mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed and buckwheat,
but decrease for chickpeas. The main factors to watch are
weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the growing
and harvest periods in Canada. Other factors to watch are the
exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and
other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing conditions in
major producing regions, especially India, Pakistan, Mexico,
United States, European Union, Turkey and Australia.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2007/pdf/18670b.pdf |
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