Source: Agriculture and Agrifood Canada

GRAINS AND OILSEEDS OUTLOOK

INTRODUCTION

For 2006-07, the production of grains and oilseeds in Canada is estimated to decrease by 7% from 2005-06 to 62.3 million tonnes (Mt), slightly above the 10-year average of 60 Mt, based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) “September Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops”. Yields are generally estimated to be near trend levels, although below 2005-06. Harvest in western Canada was completed well ahead of normal. A better-than normal grade distribution is estimated for all crops. In western Canada, production decreased by 9% from 2005-06, to 46.3 Mt due to lower yields. In eastern Canada, STC’s production estimate for grains and oilseeds is 16 Mt but this could be revised downward in its December release because excess rain in some provinces has delayed the harvest of corn and soybeans.

Total supply of grains and oilseeds in Canada for 2006-07 is forecast to decrease by 1% from 2005-06, as lower
production has more-than offset higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 11%, mainly because of higher wheat exports. Total domestic use is expected to rise, partly due to increased use of corn and wheat for
ethanol production. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall by 27%, with declines expected for all crops except for
oats, flaxseed and soybeans. Canadian prices for all crops are expected to be higher than in 2005-06 due to strong prices in the US, except for flaxseed. The Canadian dollar is expected to continue to be strong. The major factors to watch are: the biofuel market, southern hemisphere crop development, ocean freight rates and exchange rates.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2006/pdf/17512g.pdf

PULSES AND SPECIAL CROPS OUTLOOK

INTRODUCTION

For 2006-07, total Canadian production of pulse and special crops is estimated to decrease by 19%, from 2005-06, to 4.3 million tonnes (Mt), based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) September production estimates and AAFC forecasts where STC estimates were not available. Estimated yields are lower than trend for dry peas, lentils, chickpeas, mustard seed, canary seed and buckwheat, but higher for dry beans and sunflower seed. Crop abandonment is estimated to be lower than normal. Harvest progress was ahead of 2005-06 and ahead of normal, and combining is generally complete. Quality is, in general, normal to higher than normal.

Total supply is estimated to decrease by 13% to 5.85 Mt, as higher carry-in stocks partly offset the decrease in production. Exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease because of the lower supply. Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, chickpeas, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, decrease for dry beans and be the same for buckwheat. The stronger Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, is expected to have the largest impact on dry bean and sunflower seed prices, as Canadian prices for these crops are directly related to US prices. The main factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing and harvest conditions in other major producing countries, especially Australia, India and Mexico.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2006/pdf/17512p.pdf