Source: Agriculture and Agrifood Canada

SUMMARY

For 2006-07, the total area seeded to pulse and special crops in Canada is expected to decrease by 14% from 2005-06, as higher areas for dry peas, chickpeas, sunflower seed and buckwheat are more than offset by lower areas for lentils, dry beans, mustard seed and canary seed. Statistics Canada’s (STC) seeding intentions survey, conducted during March 17-31 and released on April 25, provided estimates for most pulse and special crops by province, but in some cases the area seeded has been forecast by AAFC. The actual seeded areas may differ from the intentions due to changes in the market outlook and expected prices, producer reaction to the STC seeding intentions report and soil moisture conditions at the time of seeding. The STC seeded area estimates will be released on June 22. Seeding progress has, in general, been normal. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate and quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern Canada, as soil moisture reserves are good in most areas,
although there are dry areas in northern Alberta and areas of excessive moisture in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Total production in Canada is forecast to decrease by 17%, from 2005-06, to 4.41 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected to decrease by 12% to 5.94 Mt, as higher carry-in stocks offset some of the decrease in production.

This report incorporates information from the March 31, 2006 STC estimates of stocks. Exports and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease because of lower supply. Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed and canary seed, decrease for dry beans and chickpeas, and be the same for sunflower seed and buckwheat. The stronger Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, is expected to have the largest impact on dry bean and sunflower seed prices, as Canadian prices for these crops are directly related to US prices. The main factors to watch are weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the growing and harvest periods in Canada. Other factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing conditions in the major producing regions, especially the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Australia, India and Mexico.

Full report in PDF format: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2006/pdf/15904.pdf