Source: Agriculture and Agrifood Canada

SUMMARY

For 2005-06, the Statistics Canada’s estimate of stocks of Canadian grain at December 31, 2005 was close to expectations for grains and oilseeds (G&O) and has confirmed the burdensome supplies of durum wheat and canola in Canada. Despite a projected 14% increase in exports in 2005-06, AAFC forecasts that total G&O carry-out stocks will increase by 12% to a record 18.3 million tonnes (Mt). Prices are expected to decline for wheat
and oilseeds, but be unchanged to slightly stronger for coarse grains.

For 2006-07, Canadian farmers are expected to increase the areas seeded to non-durum wheat, oats, barley and corn, while reducing areas of durum, canola, flaxseed and soybeans. Total G&O production is forecast by AAFC to decline by 3% due to lower yields, but total supply is projected to increase slightly due to the larger carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 6% to 28.7 Mt, with carry-out stocks projected to fall by 12% to 16.1 Mt. Canadian wheat, canola and oat prices are forecast to decline, with barley and corn prices expected to strengthen. Prices will continue to be pressured by the strong Canadian dollar. The market outlook is very tentative due to the high degree of uncertainty regarding global supply and demand conditions. In addition, trade policy factors, such as the anti-dumping and countervail (AD/CV) duties currently in place on imports of unprocessed grain corn from the US, will also affect the outlook.

Full report in PDF format: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2006/pdf/14879.pdf