Source: Agriculture and Agrifood Canada

INTRODUCTION

For 2006-07, the total area seeded to pulse and special crops in Canada decreased by 12% from 2005-06, as higher areas for dry peas, chickpeas and buckwheat were more than offset by lower areas for lentils, dry beans, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed. Statistics Canada’s (STC) seeded area survey released on June 22, provided estimates for most pulse and special crops by province, but for some of the smaller producing provinces the area seeded has been forecast by AAFC. Crop development is generally ahead of normal. The abandonment rate is expected to be normal, except for dry peas and canary seed in Saskatchewan for which slightly higher than normal abandonment is forecast because of excessive moisture in north-eastern Saskatchewan, where a significant portion of these crops are produced. Yields are generally expected to be slightly lower than trend in western Canada because of hot and mostly dry weather during July. Trend yields are expected for eastern Canada. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the harvest period and that quality will be normal. The dry pea, lentil, chickpea and mustard seed harvest has started.

Total production in Canada is forecast to decrease by 19%, from 2005-06, to 4.29 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected to decrease by 15% to 5.75 Mt, as higher carry-in stocks offset some of the decrease in production. Exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease because of the lower supply. Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, mustard
seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, decrease for dry beans and chickpeas, and be the same for buckwheat. The stronger Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, is expected to have the largest impact on dry bean and sunflower seed prices, as Canadian prices for these crops are directly related to US prices. The main factors to watch are Canadian weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the remainder of the growing period for late crops, dry beans, sunflower seed and buckwheat, and during the harvest period for all crops. Other factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing conditions in the major producing regions, especially the United States, Australia, India and Mexico.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2006/pdf/16541.pdf