USDA/FAS GAIN report SR 6005
Massive floods in Serbia threaten the agriculture season

Report Highlights

Recent flooding of Serbian rivers could have devastating impact on the agriculture sector. Latest information from the Serbian Ministry of Agriculture indicates that about 240,000 hectares of farmland in Serbia have been impacted, with 112,000 hectares completely flooded. If floodwater remains in fields till the first week of May it could prevent farmers from planting seeds for the new spring crops (corn, sunflowers and soybeans) and could seriously endanger this year production of wheat, barley and vegetables. At the present time, the government has no funds in the budget to compensate affected farmers. Last year the Serbian government established a new insurance support program that provided 30 percent of farmers crop insurance's costs.

During the weekend of April 15-16, the Serbian rivers Danube, Sava, Tamis and Tisa rose to their highest level in more than a century endangering Serbian cities and agriculture land. A state of emergency has been declared in six Serbian regions due to the flooding: Secanj, Negotin, Veliko Gradiste, Smederevo, Pozarevac and Golubac. In the Smederevo area, 40 kilometers east of Belgrade, hundreds of people were evacuated as waters from the Danube River flooded the town.

In the northern province of Vojvodina, Serbia’s breadbasket, floods have been the worst in the country and farmers are unable to plant seeds for the new spring crops. The municipality of Zrenjanin is the most affected area with 14,900 hectares of flooded farmland. The Serbian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management estimates that 240,000 HA of agriculture land have been affected, of which 112,000 HA is totally flooded and the remaining areas turned into muddy fields due to high levels of ground water. Although it is
too early to estimate the full damage of the floods, if water remains in fields until the first of May, the impact on spring crops could be devastating to the agricultural sector this season.

It is estimated that area planted in the spring season would cover about 2,272,000 hectares of field crops and vegetables as follows:

- corn 1,200,000 HA
- vegetables 300,000 HA
- sunflowers 240,000 Ha
- soybeans 160,000 HA
- feed/forage crops 158,000 HA
- sugarbeet 75,000 HA
- barley 60,000 HA
- oats 37,500 HA
- other spring grains 10,700 HA
- tobacco 6,500 HA
- other industrial crops 5,000 HA
- others 19,000 HA

The sugar beet crop expected to be planted on 75,000 HA but only 50,000 HA have been planted so far, with a 25,000 HA questionable due to flooded fields. Oilseed crushing companies contracted farmers to plant 240,000 HA of sunflower seeds this year, but so far only half of the farmers received their planting seeds. Soybean crushing facilities have contracted farmers to plant 160,000 HA. Most of this area has been affected by floods and
soybean planting has been very slow. Serbia is large producer and exporter of vegetables.

Heavy precipitation and floods have also affected vegetable planting. So far, only 20 percent of the total 300,000 HA of the vegetables area has been planted. Prices of vegetables have already started to rise in the local markets over the past week.

Crops planted last fall have also been impacted by heavy rains and flooding. It is reported that about 100,000 HA of the total wheat area (540,000 HA) is endangered. Although it is too early to estimate the full impact of the flooding on the wheat crop, it is certain that average wheat yields would not be higher than 3.5 MT/HA. Given Serbian wheat consumption needs (2 million tones annually) and current wheat stocks, Serbia may have to import wheat in the coming marketing year.

At the present time, the Serbian government does not have funds in the budget to help farmers affected by the floods. Farmers will have to rely on a newly established support program for crop insurance that only covers registered farmers. The crop insurance support programs started last year and pays 30 percent of total farmers’ insurance costs. The Serbian government has set aside about $3.5 million in its 2006 budget for this program.