The U.S. Department of Agriculture today released a report that evaluates the early warning system for soybean rust surveillance, reporting, prediction and management during the 2005 growing season and concludes that information provided as part of the system helped to increase profits and mitigate damage caused by the fungus.

"Last spring USDA launched an early warning system to help ensure producers have easy access to all the best information and guidance on soybean rust," said Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns. "I'm pleased that our efforts have been successful and even contributed to increased producers' income. I encourage producers to continue their vigilance this year and use the soybean rust web site to help make informed decisions in managing soybean rust."

The report, "The Value of Plant Disease Early Warning Systems: A Case Study of USDA's Soybean Rust Coordinated Framework," examines the system that provides real-time, county-level forecasts of soybean rust detections in the United States to provide timely forecasts of soybean rust infections that could reduce yields.

USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) conducted the case study to evaluate the effectiveness of the coordinated framework, or early warning system. The study estimates that the information provided by federal, state, industry and academic partners increased U.S. soybean producers' profits by a total of $11 million to $299 million in 2005, or between 16 cents and $4.12 per acre.

In 2002, USDA implemented a strategic plan in anticipation of a potential soybean rust find in the U.S., which established priorities of protection, detection, response and recovery. USDA agencies, including the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service; the Cooperative State Research, Education and Extension Service; the Risk Management Agency and the Agricultural Research Service, partnered with soybean industry organizations, state departments of agriculture and many in the research and scientific communities to launch a coordinate framework.

Central to the coordinated framework is the USDA soybean rust Web site, according to the report. The one-stop federal resource provides farmers, crop consultants and others timely information on the extent and severity of soybean rust outbreaks and gives users up-to-date forecasts on where soybean rust is likely to appear.

The study uses USDA data on historical soybean yields, data from USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey, estimated soybean rust damages from Brazil and Paraguay, and spore dispersion estimates based on an aerobiology analysis and historical experience with wheat stem rust. Using National Agricultural Statistic Service data, information from a Government Accounting Office (GAO) soybean rust report and research conducted by agricultural analysts, ERS also concluded that the timely soybean rust forecasts mitigated damage through preventive management activities, which included fungicide application recommendations.

The GAO report released in March also praised USDA's efforts to provide timely information on Asian soybean rust detections. That report revealed that cooperators did a solid job of monitoring the disease and preparing America's farmers to handle outbreaks.

Soybean rust is caused by either of two fungal species, Phakopsora pachyrhizi, also known as the Asian species, and Phakopsora meibomiae, the New World species. The Asian species, first found in Louisiana in 2004, is the more aggressive of the two species, causing more damage to soybean plants. During the 2005 growing season, the fungus was found in 9 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. In the current growing season, it has been found in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Texas.

To view the USDA report, visit the ERS Web site at http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err18.

The one-stop resource, www.usda.gov/soybeanrust, provides timely information on the extent and severity of soybean rust outbreaks in the United States, Caribbean basin and Central America. It provides users up-to-date forecasts on where soybean rust is likely to appear in the United States, reports where the disease exists by county, refers growers to county extension agents nationwide, lists the National Plant Diagnostic Networks laboratories and links to other web sites to give producers effective disease management options.

REPORT SUMMARY

The Value of Plant Disease Early-Warning Systems
A Case Study of USDA's Soybean Rust Coordinated Framework|
by Michael J. Roberts, David Schimmelpfennig, Elizabeth Ashley, Michael Livingston, with contributions by Mark Ash and Utpal Vasavada

Early-warning systems for plant diseases are valuable when the systems provide timely forecasts that farmers can use to mitigate potentially damaging events through preventative management. For example, soybean rust (SBR), a soybean fungus which entered the United States in late 2004, posed a new, uncertain, and potentially large threat at the beginning of the 2005 U.S. soybean season. Farmers anticipated markedly reduced soybean yields on fields infected with SBR, but with sufficient notice, they could treat the fields in advance with preventative fungicides, a costly, but prudent, measure.

What Is the Issue?

In 2005, USDA developed an early-warning system that provides real-time, county-level forecasts of soybean rust. This system provides farmers, crop consultants, and others with interests in the U.S. soybean crop timely forecasts of SBR infestations that could sharply reduce soybean yields. Forecasts and recommended management activities are provided via a publicly accessible website, the first time a web-based system has been used for this purpose. The information on the website is developed through a large coordinated framework that involves many government and nongovernment organizations that regularly collect samples from fields, test them, and incorporate them into forecasting models. But how valuable is the information provided by the framework? This question has become particularly salient in light of modest outbreaks of SBR in 2005. This study uses the SBR system as a case study to determine the effectiveness of such earlywarning systems. The answer will aid decisions on future investments in this system and perhaps others like it.

What Did the Study Find?

The value of the framework’s information depends on many factors, particularly farmers’ perceived risk at the beginning of the season of SBR infection and the accuracy of the system’s forecast. These factors cannot be precisely quantified, but our analysis shows that, although the value of information from the system varies somewhat geographically, overall the system's value has been substantial. Even if forecasts are poor, resolving only 20 percent of SBR infection uncertainty for all fields planted with soybeans, the system’s value is an estimated $11 million in farmer profits in the first year. If forecasts resolve 80 percent of infestation uncertainty, the estimated value is $299 million. Our analysis suggests that the value of the information in 2005 likely
exceeds reported costs of developing the information.

The study also analyzes two more subtle features that affect estimated information values: anticipated price shocks in the event of large rust outbreaks and soybean farmers’ aversion to risk. We found that both of these factors reduce the largest estimated values and increase the smallest ones, but the magnitude of the effects are modest relative to the perceived forecast quality. The large potential benefits of the framework suggest that similar programs for other crop pests can be cost effective if, as in the case of soybean rust, preventative action can strongly mitigate damages in the event an outbreak.

How Was the Study Conducted?

The study applies conceptual methods from decision science to evaluate how much expected profits increase if farmers are able to fine-tune their rust management decisions in response to SBR forecasts. These methods are combined with USDA data on historical soybean yields, data from USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey, estimated soybean rust damages from Brazil and Paraguay, and spore dispersion estimates based on an aerobiology analysis and historical experience with wheat stem rust. Information values were calculated over a broad range of assumptions because some of the parameters were not estimable and some parameter  estimates were uncertain.

Full report in PDF format (20MB): http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err18/err18.pdf