Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada/Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada

Total Canadian pulse and special crops production increased by 2%, from 2004-05, to 5.33 million tonnes (Mt), based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) November production estimates. Total supply increased by 15% to 6.74 Mt, due to higher production and higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 19% and domestic use by 5% due to stronger demand, but carry-out stocks are also expected to increase. Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for chickpeas, decrease for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, and be the same for buckwheat.

STC’s yield estimates are significantly higher than trend for Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta, and much below trend for Manitoba. Crop abandonment is estimated to be near normal, except for Manitoba where significantly higher than normal abandonment is estimated. The harvest is generally complete. Overall quality is estimated to be better than in 2004-05, but generally lower than normal for dry peas and lentils, and normal for dry beans, chickpeas, mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed and buckwheat. The main factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates, and growing and harvest conditions in major producing regions, especially the Indian sub-continent and Mexico.

DRY PEAS

For 2005-06, production decreased by 7%, due to a 2% decrease in seeded area and lower yields. Production decreased for yellow, green and other types. Supply increased by 5% due to higher carry-in stocks. World supply decreased slightly to 12.2 Mt. Canadian exports and domestic use are expected to increase due to stronger demand in the food markets in Asia and in the feed markets in the EU and Canada. Carryout stocks are forecast to decrease, with a stocks-to-use (s/u) ratio of 13%. Support from slightly lower world supply is expected to be more than offset by higher Canadian, US and Australian supply, which is mostly exported, and lower prices of alternative feed ingredients. Therefore, the average price, over all types, grades and markets, is forecast to decrease.

LENTILS

For 2005-06, production and supply increased significantly, due to a 14% rise in seeded area, higher yields and higher carry-in stocks. Production increased for large green, small green and red types, but remained stable for the medium green type. World supply increased by 16% to 4.52 Mt. Although world use is expected to increase because of higher demand, resulting mostly from lower prices, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise. Canadian exports are expected to increase by 36% due to the higher demand. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise significantly, with a s/u ratio of 64%. The average price, over all types and grades, is forecast to decrease because of the higher world supply.

DRY BEANS

For 2005-06, production and supply increased, due to a 23% rise in seeded area and lower abandonment. Production increased for white pea, pinto, black, dark and light red kidney, and cranberry beans, but remained stable for Great Northern, small red and pink beans. US production increased by 52% to 1.18 Mt, while supply increased by only 26% to 1.32 Mt due to lower carry-in stocks. Canadian exports are forecast to increase due to higher supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase, but remain low. The average price, over all classes and
grades, is forecast to decrease due to the higher US and Canadian supply.

CHICKPEAS

For 2005-06, production and supply increased, because of a 69% rise in seeded area, lower abandonment and
higher yields. Production increased for large and small kabuli types, but remained stable for the desi type. World
supply increased marginally to 8.9 Mt. Canadian exports are forecast to increase due to the higher supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase, but remain low. The average price, over all types, grades and sizes, is forecast to increase due to higher quality, stronger demand and a shift to the production of the higher priced kabuli types.

MUSTARD SEED

For 2005-06, production decreased by 34% because of a 33% fall in seeded area. Production decreased for all types, yellow, brown and oriental. Supply decreased only marginally due to higher carry-in stocks. Although exports are forecast to rise due to higher demand, carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease only moderately, with a s/u ratio of 79%. The average price, over all types and grades, is expected to decrease because of pressure from sharply higher carry-in stocks.

CANARY SEED

For 2005-06, production decreased by 24%, as a 46% fall in seeded area was partly offset by higher yields. Supply increased by 8%, as higher carry-in stocks more than offset the fall in production. World supply, 90% of
which is in Canada, increased by 8% to 437,000 t. Although Canadian exports are expected to increase due to higher demand, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise slightly, with a s/u ratio of 79%. The average price is forecast to decrease because of the higher world supply.

SUNFLOWER SEED

For 2005-06, production and supply increased due to a 7% rise in seeded area, lower abandonment and higher yields. Production increased for both types, confectionery and oilseed. US production increased by 89% to 1.76 Mt
and supply by 69% to 1.84 Mt. World supply increased by 10% to 30.5 Mt. Canadian exports and domestic use are forecast to increase because of the higher supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to a low level. The average price, over both types and all grades, is forecast to decrease because of the higher US and Canadian supply.

BUCKWHEAT

For 2005-06, Canadian production and supply increased, as a lower seeded area was more than offset by lower
abandonment and higher yields. Exports are forecast to remain stable while domestic use increases. Carry-out stocks are expected to be negligible. The average price is forecast to be the same as in 2004-05.

Complete report in PDF format: www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2005/pdf/14306.pdf