Total Canadian pulse and special crops production is estimated to increase by 4%, from 2004-05, to 5.43 million tonnes (Mt), based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) July 31 production estimates and AAFC forecasts where STC estimates were not available. Total supply is expected to increase by 14% to 6.67 Mt, due to higher production and higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 13% and domestic use by 7% due to stronger demand, but carry-out stocks are also expected to increase. Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for chickpeas and mustard seed, decrease for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, canary seed and sunflower seed, and be the same for buckwheat.

STC’s yield estimates are significantly higher than trend for Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta, and much below trend for Manitoba. Since the survey was conducted from July 20 to August 5 before the start of harvest, the actual yields for crops in western Canada could be lower than the estimates because of hot and dry weather in late July and early August. Crop abandonment is expected to be slightly lower than normal, except for Manitoba where significantly higher than normal abandonment is expected. Harvest progress is about a week behind normal, but significantly ahead of 2004-05. Harvesting of dry peas, lentils, chickpeas and mustard seed is
underway and harvesting of canary seed and dry beans has started. The buckwheat harvest is expected to start in mid September and the sunflower seed harvest in early October. Quality is expected to be normal and significantly better than in 2004-05, assuming that precipitation and temperatures will be normal for the harvest period. Wet weather and early frosts would reduce both yields and quality.

The main factors to watch are precipitation and temperatures during September and October in Canada. Other factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates, and growing and harvest conditions in major producing regions, especially United States, India and Australia.

Complete report in PDF format: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2005/pdf/13342.pdf