Winnipeg, Manitoba
January 20, 2004
from Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada
Market Analysis Division
Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook
January 20, 2004
ISSN 1499-9773
For 2003-04, total production of pulse and special crops
increased by 37% from 2002-03 to 3.67 million tonnes (Mt), as a
lower seeded area was more than offset by lower abandonment and
higher yields. Average crop quality was higher than normal for
dry peas, lentils and chick peas and normal for dry beans,
mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed and buckwheat. Exports
and domestic use are forecast to increase, and carry-out stocks
are expected to decrease slightly. Average prices, compared to
2002-03, are forecast to increase for dry beans, chick peas and
buckwheat, be the same for lentils and decrease for dry peas,
mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed. Prices are being
pressured, to a varying degree, by the stronger Canadian dollar,
compared to US and some other
currencies, and sharply higher ocean shipping rates.
For 2004-05, total area seeded to pulse and special crops in
Canada is forecast to decrease by 4% from 2003-04, as an
increase for lentils is more than offset by decreases for dry
peas, dry beans, mustard seed and sunflower seed. It is assumed
that precipitation will be normal for the winter, spring and
summer. However for western Canada, due to the current dry
conditions in most areas, yields are forecast to be below trend
but, in general, higher than in 2003-04. For eastern Canada,
trend yields are assumed. It has been assumed that the
abandonment rate and average quality will be normal. Total
production in Canada is forecast to increase by 8% to 3.97 Mt.
Total supply is expected to increase by 6% to 4.66 Mt.
Exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to
increase due to the higher supply. Average prices, compared to
2003-04, are forecast to increase for dry beans, chick peas and
sunflower seed, decrease for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed and
canary seed, and be the same for buckwheat. However, prices are
expected to be very sensitive to any production problems due to
low world carry-in stocks for most crops. The main factor to
watch will be precipitation during the rest of the winter and,
especially, during the spring and summer in western Canada.
If the dry conditions persist in parts of western Canada, the
seeded area for small seed crops, such as mustard seed and
canary seed, could be lower than forecast. Other factors to
watch are the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar against the
US dollar and other
currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing conditions in major
producing countries.
DRY PEAS
For 2003-04, due to
higher production and supply, exports are forecast to increase.
The average price is forecast to decrease, compared to 2002-03,
as carry-out stocks decrease marginally, with a stocks-to-use
ratio (s/u) of 14%.
For 2004-05, the area
seeded is forecast to decrease by 5%. Production and supply are
forecast to increase due to expected higher yields. World supply
is expected to increase by 7% to 11.6 Mt
because of higher production in Canada and the
EU, but this is expected to
be mostly offset by increased use. Canadian exports and domestic
use are forecast to increase due to higher supply and lower
prices. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase, with a
s/u of 15%. The average
price, compared to 2003-04, over all types, grades and markets,
is forecast to decrease due to the higher supply.
LENTILS
For 2003-04, due to
higher production and supply, Canadian exports are forecast to
increase. The average price is forecast to be the same as in
2002-03 as higher average quality offsets the pressure from
increased supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease,
with a s/u of 7%.
For 2004-05, the
seeded area is forecast to increase by about 5%. Production and
supply are forecast to increase due to the higher seeded area
and expected higher yields. World supply is forecast to increase
by 3% to 3.26 Mt, due mainly
to higher Canadian production. Canadian exports are expected to
increase, as Canada's share of world supply increases. Carry-out
stocks are forecast to increase, with a
s/u of 12%. The average
price, over all types and grades, is forecast to decrease due to
the higher supply.
DRY BEANS
For 2003-04,
production and supply decreased significantly in Canada and the
US.
Canadian exports are forecast to increase because of strong
demand. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease, with a
s/u of 12%, and the
average price is forecast to increase.
For 2004-05, area
seeded is forecast to decrease marginally. Production and total
supply are expected to decrease, due mainly to a return to
normal yields which are lower than yields in 2003-04. In the
US,
production is expected to increase, while the total supply
remains stable due to lower carry-in stocks. Canadian exports
are forecast to decrease due to the lower supply. Carry-out
stocks are expected to decrease, with a
s/u of 5%. The average
price, over all classes and grades, is forecast to increase due
to the lower supply.
CHICK PEAS
For 2003-04, due to
lower production and supply, exports are forecast to decrease.
Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease, with a
s/u of 9%. The average
price is forecast to increase because of higher average quality.
For 2004-05, the area
seeded is forecast to be similar to 2003-04, with a shift in
production to the large kabuli type. Production is expected to
decrease slightly due to a return to normal abandonment rate
which is higher than in 2003-04. Supply is forecast to decrease,
due mainly to lower carry-in stocks. Total world supply is
expected to decrease slightly to 7.7 Mt.
Canadian exports are forecast to decrease due to the lower
supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to a low
level. The average price, over all types, grades and sizes, is
forecast to increase due to the lower supply.
MUSTARD SEED
For 2003-04, due to
higher production and supply, exports are forecast to increase.
Carry-out stocks are expected to increase, with a
s/u of 52% and the
average price is forecast to decrease sharply.
For 2004-05, area
seeded is expected to decrease by 20%. Production is forecast to
decrease, while supply increases, as the decrease in production
is more than offset by higher carry-in stocks. Although exports
are expected to rise, carry-out stocks are forecast to increase,
with a s/u of 53%. The
average price, over all types and grades, is expected to
decrease due to the higher supply.
CANARY SEED
For 2003-04, due to
higher production and supply, exports are forecast to increase.
Carry-out stocks are expected to increase, with a
s/u ratio of 23%. The
average price is forecast to decrease sharply due to the higher
supply.
For 2004-05, area
seeded is expected to be the same as in 2003-04. Production and
supply are forecast to increase due to higher yields and higher
carry-in stocks. Total world supply is forecast to increase by
12% to 325,000 t. Although Canadian exports are expected to
increase, due to lower prices, carry-out stocks are forecast to
increase, with a s/u of
29%. The average price is forecast to decrease, due to the
higher supply
SUNFLOWER SEED
For 2003-04, due to
higher supply and strong demand, exports and domestic use are
expected to increase. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease,
with a s/u of 17%. The
average price is forecast to decrease due to the higher supply
of the oilseed type.
For 2004-05, area
seeded is expected to decrease by 10%. Production and supply are
forecast to increase due to expected higher yields. Total world
supply is expected to increase marginally to 26.6 Mt.
Canadian exports are forecast to remain stable, while domestic
use increases. Carry-out stocks are expected to remain stable,
with a s/u of 17%. The
average price, over both types and all grades, is forecast to
increase because of some shift in production to the higher
priced confectionary type.
BUCKWHEAT
For 2003-04, due to
lower production and supply, exports are expected to remain
stable, while carry-out stocks decrease. The average price is
forecast to increase due to the lower supply.
For 2004-05, area
seeded and production are forecast to be the same as in 2003-04,
while supply decreases due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are
forecast to remain stable and carry-out stocks are expected to
be very low. The average price is forecast to be the same as in
2003-04, as lower Canadian supply is more than offset by
slightly higher world supply.
For more information on the above commodities, please use this
link access the Market Analysis Division Online Contact List.
|
Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Supply and Disposition
January 20, 2004
ISSN
1496-967X |
|
Grain
and
Crop Year
(a) |
Harvested Area
(kha) |
Yield
(t/ha) |
Pro-
duc-
tion
(kt) |
Im-
por-
ts
(b)
(kt) |
To-
tal Sup-
ply
(kt) |
Exports
(b) (kt) |
Total
Dom. Use
(d)
(kt) |
Ending
Stocks
(kt) |
Avg.
Price
(e)
$/t |
|
Dry Peas |
|
2000
-2001 |
1,220 |
2.35 |
2,864 |
12 |
3,276 |
2,196 |
885 |
195 |
138 |
|
2001
-2002 |
1,285 |
1.57 |
2,023 |
27 |
2,245 |
1,381 |
589 |
275 |
190 |
|
2002
-2003 |
1,050 |
1.30 |
1,365 |
41 |
1,681 |
650 |
721 |
310 |
210 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
1,271 |
1.67 |
2,124 |
25 |
2,459 |
1,350 |
809 |
300 |
150
-180 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
1,210 |
1.95 |
2,360 |
25 |
2,685 |
1,450 |
885 |
350 |
140
-170 |
|
Lentils |
|
2000
-2001 |
688 |
1.33 |
914 |
5 |
999 |
475 |
268 |
256 |
295 |
|
2001
-2002 |
664 |
0.85 |
566 |
6 |
828 |
478 |
219 |
131 |
320 |
|
2002
-2003 |
387 |
0.91 |
354 |
9 |
494 |
319 |
120 |
55 |
390 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
536 |
0.97 |
520 |
5 |
580 |
410 |
130 |
40 |
375
-405 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
570 |
1.10 |
625 |
5 |
670 |
460 |
140 |
70 |
350
-380 |
|
Dry Beans |
|
2000
-2001 |
162 |
1.65 |
268 |
40 |
348 |
227 |
71 |
50 |
465 |
|
2001
-2002 |
175 |
1.70 |
298 |
42 |
390 |
263 |
97 |
30 |
725 |
|
2002
-2003 |
219 |
1.89 |
414 |
40 |
484 |
297 |
122 |
65 |
445 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
167 |
2.13 |
356 |
35 |
456 |
315 |
91 |
50 |
475
-505 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
165 |
1.85 |
305 |
40 |
395 |
290 |
85 |
20 |
510
-540 |
|
Chick Peas |
|
2000
-2001 |
283 |
1.37 |
388 |
5 |
408 |
179 |
199 |
30 |
410 |
|
2001
-2002 |
467 |
0.97 |
455 |
12 |
497 |
147 |
210 |
140 |
380 |
|
2002
-2003 |
154 |
1.01 |
156 |
9 |
305 |
115 |
130 |
60 |
300 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
63 |
1.08 |
68 |
10 |
138 |
75 |
43 |
20 |
315
-345 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
60 |
1.08 |
65 |
15 |
100 |
45 |
45 |
10 |
330
-360 |
|
Mustard Seed |
|
2000
-2001 |
208 |
0.97 |
202 |
1 |
318 |
151 |
62 |
105 |
280 |
|
2001
-2002 |
158 |
0.66 |
105 |
3 |
213 |
171 |
9 |
33 |
685 |
|
2002
-2003 |
255 |
0.60 |
154 |
9 |
196 |
120 |
16 |
60 |
595 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
328 |
0.69 |
226 |
5 |
291 |
160 |
31 |
100 |
375
-405 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
265 |
0.81 |
215 |
3 |
318 |
170 |
38 |
110 |
360
-390 |
|
Canary Seed |
|
2000
-2001 |
164 |
1.04 |
171 |
0 |
261 |
170 |
21 |
70 |
265 |
|
2001
-2002 |
163 |
0.70 |
114 |
0 |
184 |
134 |
20 |
30 |
660 |
|
2002
-2003 |
214 |
0.77 |
164 |
0 |
194 |
163 |
11 |
20 |
575 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
243 |
0.91 |
220 |
0 |
240 |
170 |
25 |
45 |
335
-365 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
245 |
0.92 |
225 |
0 |
270 |
175 |
35 |
60 |
295
-325 |
|
Sunflower Seed |
|
2000
-2001 |
69 |
1.72 |
119 |
18 |
178 |
77 |
55 |
46 |
320 |
|
2001
-2002 |
67 |
1.55 |
104 |
29 |
179 |
92 |
65 |
22 |
355 |
|
2002
-2003 |
95 |
1.65 |
157 |
21 |
200 |
105 |
60 |
35 |
440 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
115 |
1.30 |
150 |
20 |
205 |
110 |
65 |
30 |
355
-385 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
100 |
1.60 |
160 |
20 |
210 |
110 |
70 |
30 |
365
-395 |
|
Buckwheat |
|
2000
-2001 |
15 |
0.93 |
14 |
1 |
16 |
9 |
7 |
0 |
305 |
|
2001
-2002 |
14 |
1.14 |
16 |
1 |
17 |
6 |
8 |
3 |
325 |
|
2002
-2003 |
12 |
1.00 |
12 |
1 |
16 |
6 |
7 |
3 |
340 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
9 |
1.11 |
10 |
1 |
14 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
340
-370 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
9 |
1.11 |
10 |
1 |
12 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
340
-370 |
|
Total Pulse And Special Crops(c) |
|
2000
-2001 |
2,809 |
1.76 |
4,940 |
82 |
5,804 |
3,484 |
1,568 |
752 |
|
|
2001
-2002 |
2,993 |
1.23 |
3,681 |
120 |
4,553 |
2,672 |
1,217 |
664 |
|
|
2002
-2003 |
2,386 |
1.16 |
2,776 |
130 |
3,570 |
1,775 |
1,187 |
608 |
|
|
2003
-2004
f |
2,732 |
1.34 |
3,674 |
101 |
4,383 |
2,596 |
1,201 |
586 |
|
|
2004
-2005
f |
2,624 |
1.51 |
3,965 |
109 |
4,660 |
2,706 |
1,304 |
650 |
|
(a) August-July crop
year.
(b) Excludes products.
(c) Includes Pulse Crops (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick
peas) and Special Crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower
seed, buckwheat)
(d) Includes food, feed, seed, waste and dockage.
(e) Producer price, FOB plant. Average over all types, grades
and markets.
p: preliminary
f: forecast, Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada, January 20, 2004
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
The report in
PDF format is at
http://www.agr.gc.ca/mad-dam/e/sd2e/2004e/jan2004sc_e.pdf
|
