April 14, 2003

A ProMED-mail post
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Source: @gWorldwide, 14 Apr 2003, Reuters [edited]

Grain analyst Celeres/MPrado said its forecast for Brazil's record 2002/03 soy crop remained unchanged based on March field work, which showed output losses due to rain and disease offsetting gains in other regions.

Brazil is expected to produce a record 50.9 million tonnes from the new crop, up 19.6 percent from last year, Celeres/MPrado said in a monthly crop output estimate published over the weekend.

The forecast is based on an area of 18.4 million hectares (45.5 million acres) and an average yield of 2 768 kg per hectare, respectively 11.7 percent and 7.1 percent higher than last year.

Despite these gains, the reduction in productive potential in Mato Grosso and Bahia of 263 000 and 31 000 tonnes, respectively, practically negated the increase.  According to the report, the reasons for the projected reductions in these states were basically excess rains in Mato Grosso and the occurrence of Asian rust in both Bahia and Mato Grosso.

If rains continue in the center-west, said Celeres/MPrado, greater losses could be registered in Mato Grosso.

[This is the second report of soybean rust in Brazil in the current crop year. The disease is caused by _Phakopsora pachyrhizi_, a major pathogen of soybean. It is present in tropical areas in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres, where it can cause severe crop losses (10-100 percent). Of concern to soybean producers in North America is dispersal of rust spores by winds from South America to soybean production areas in the United States and possibly Canada. Of the reported outbreaks, the majority occur in Africa (Nigeria, Uganda, and Zimbabwe). - Mod.DH]

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