The tremendous growth in U.S. soybean seed exports to Mexico merits some attention, especially since the volume in MY 2001/02 substantially exceeds Mexico’s forecasted soybean production in the current season. Assuming that the seeding rate for soybeans in Mexico is anywhere near that of the U.S. (around 70 lbs/acre), Mexico can only use about 6,000 tons of soybean seed per year. Despite the likelihood of rapid commercialization in the Mexican soybean seed market, it
appears there may be an error in U.S. trade statistics.

Mexico’s soybean seed exports did increase from zero to 220 MT last year, but that is relatively small, so neither trans-shipment nor winter nursery activity figure into this story. Intentional misclassification is not likely either, since the surge does not appear in Mexican data. Official Mexican customs statistics show total CY 2002 soybean seed imports of only 1,200 tons, half from the United States, half from Guatemala. In 2001, Mexican customs reports 5,800 tons of soybean seed imports, mainly from the U.S. Interestingly, U.S. non-seed soybean exports to Mexico in CY 2002 are recorded at 4 million tons north of the border and 4.3 million tons south of the border. Most likely, some U.S. non-seed soybean exports to Mexico have been inadvertently misclassified on Shippers’ Export Declarations. U.S. industry experts agree that 218,000 tons of soybean seed exports to Mexico in 2002 is highly unlikely, noting that soybean germplasm does not travel well across latitudes as it is sensitive to day length. Checking the unit prices of exports did not help: Average export prices were within the same range for all countries for both non-seed and seed uses. USDA is working with the Census Bureau to investigate the problem.

Should the $48 million in U.S. soybean seed exports turns out to have never happened, earlier stories celebrating a 10 percent increase in U.S. seed exports in MY 2001/02 will have to be revised, but U.S. seed exports increased 5 percent even without soybean seed.