Washington, DC
March 2, 2009
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World cotton area is projected to
continue declining for the third consecutive season in 2009/10.
Decreasing cotton returns, more attractive prices for competing
crops, and expected difficulties in financing inputs are
encouraging farmers to continue switching to alternative crops.
World cotton area is forecast down by 3% to 30.1 million
hectares in 2009/10. World cotton production is expected to
decrease by 1% to 23.5 million tons.
World cotton mill use is expected to remain almost stable in
2009/10 at 23.9 million tons. World cotton imports are forecast
to rebound by 1.1 million tons in 2009/10 to 7.5 million tons,
helped by the expected small recovery in mill use in China
(Mainland). World cotton stocks are projected down by 3% to
11.9 million tons in 2009/10.
The ICAC Price Model 2007 projects the season-average Cotlook A
Index at 60 cents per pound in 2008/09, down by 18% from last
season. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 56 to 65 cents
per pound. The Secretariat's projected
2008/09 season-average Cotlook A Index has declined every month
since September 2008, due to a worsening consumption outlook.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.22 |
23.7 |
23.5 |
120.4 |
109 |
108 |
|
Consumption |
26.29 |
23.8 |
23.9 |
120.7 |
109 |
110 |
|
Exports |
8.35 |
6.3 |
7.5 |
38.4 |
29 |
34 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.47 |
12.3 |
11.9 |
57.3 |
57 |
55 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
|
72.90 |
60** |
|
72.90 |
60** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), and
on the ratio of Chinese net imports to World imports in 2007/08
(estimate) and 2008/09 (projection). 95% confidence
interval: 56 to 65 cents per pound.
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
