Washington, DC
June 1, 2009
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
Based on a price forecast of 60
cents per pound for 2008/09 and an expectation of rising stocks
in 2009/10, the ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts a season-average
Cotlook A Index of 54 cents per pound in 2009/10 (the 95%
confidence interval is between 41 and 58 cents per pound).
However, major uncertainties regarding projected cotton trade in
2009/10 pose substantial risks to this forecast.
World cotton trade is expected to partially recover in 2009/10,
to 6.5 million tons (+8%). Chinese imports are projected to rise
only slightly to
1.45 million tons. Beginning at the end of May 2009, the
government of China
(Mainland) started selling cotton from the national reserve to
domestic textile mills. The quantities sold will affect 2009/10
Chinese imports. India is expected to account for most of the
expected rise in world exports, with shipments forecast to
almost triple to 1.1 million tons. However, US exports are
expected to decline by 11% in 2009/10 to 2.3 million tons.
In 2009/10, world cotton production is expected to decline for
the third consecutive season to 23.4 million tons (-1%).
Production is expected to decline in China (Mainland), Brazil,
Uzbekistan, the CFA zone and Turkey.
However, production is forecast to increase significantly in
India and slightly in the United States.
World cotton mill use is expected to increase by 2% to 23.3
million tons in 2009/10. This projection is based on a modest
recovery in world economic growth in 2010. Cotton mill use is
expected to increase in China (Mainland), India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam, but to continue to decline in
the United States and many smaller consuming countries in Asia,
North America and Europe.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.21 |
23.6 |
23.4 |
120.4 |
108 |
108 |
|
Consumption |
26.32 |
22.9 |
23.3 |
120.9 |
105 |
107 |
|
Exports |
8.37 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
38.4 |
28 |
30 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.38 |
13.1 |
13.2 |
56.9 |
60 |
61 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
72.90 |
60** |
54*** |
72.90 |
60** |
54*** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index (U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), on
the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2007/08
(estimate) and 2008/09 (projection), and on the average price
for the first ten months of 2008/09. 95% confidence interval: 58
to 62 cents per pound.
*** The price projection for 2009/10 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2007/08 (estimate), in 2008/09 (projection), and in 2009/10
(projection), and on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world
imports in 2008/09 (projection) and 2009/10 (projection). 95%
confidence interval: 41 to 58 cents per pound. The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
