Washington, DC
October 1, 2008
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
Cotton prices fell sharply in
September, affected by the crisis in the U.S. financial system.
The Cotlook A Index dropped from 78 cents per pound on September
1 to 68 cents per pound on September 30.
World cotton production is expected to decline by 6% to 24.7
million tons in 2008/09, due mainly to competition from
alternative crops. The production drop is driven by the United
States, but the 2008/09 crops are also expected to be smaller in
Turkey, Brazil and Egypt. Cotton production is projected to
increase in Australia and Pakistan.
World cotton mill use is expected to decline by 1% in 2008/09 to
26.0 million tons, due to slower global economic growth and
higher prices of cotton relative to polyester. World imports are
forecast almost stable, at 8.4 million tons. In spite of lower
U.S. production, large accumulated stocks could maintain U.S.
exports around 3 million tons.
World cotton stocks are forecast to decrease by 11% to 10.9
million tons in 2008/09. The largest decline in stocks is
expected to take place in the United States.
The ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts the 2008/09 season-average
Cotlook A Index at 79 cents per pound, 6 cents higher than the
2007/08 average.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.64 |
26.28 |
24.7 |
122.3 |
120.7 |
113 |
|
Consumption |
26.49 |
26.39 |
26.0 |
122.7 |
121.2 |
120 |
|
Exports |
8.12 |
8.36 |
8.4 |
37.3 |
38.4 |
39 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.51 |
12.20 |
10.9 |
57.4 |
56.0 |
50 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
72.90 |
79** |
59.15 |
72.90 |
79** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), and
on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in China (Mainland) in
2006/07 and in 2007/08 (estimate). 95% confidence interval: 70
to 90 cents per pound.
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
