Washington, DC
July 1, 2008
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World cotton production is
expected to decline by 3% to 25.5 million tons in 2008/09. A
major drop in production is forecast in the United States and
smaller declines are expected in China (Mainland), Brazil,
Egypt, Turkey and Central Asia. Production increases are
projected in India, Australia, the African Franc Zone and
Pakistan.
Global cotton mill use is expected to decline by 1% in 2008/09
to 26.6 million tons, due to projected slower global economic
expansion and higher prices of cotton relative to polyester.
World imports are expected to increase by 5% to 8.8 million
tons, driven by larger Chinese imports.
World cotton stocks are forecast to decrease by more than one
million tons to 11.0 million tons in 2008/09. The largest
decline in stocks is expected to occur in the United States,
where considerable supplies that accumulated during the previous
two seasons will fuel exports.
The Secretariat forecasts an increase in the season-average
Cotlook A Index from 73 cents per pound in 2007/08 to 82 cents
per pound in 2008/09 (the 95% confidence interval is between 68
and 95 cents per pound).
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.66 |
26.24 |
25.5 |
122.5 |
120.5 |
117 |
|
Consumption |
26.66 |
26.75 |
26.6 |
122.5 |
122.9 |
122 |
|
Exports |
8.13 |
8.19 |
8.8 |
37.3 |
37.6 |
41 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.42 |
12.14 |
11.0 |
57.0 |
55.7 |
51 |
|
Stock adjustment |
+0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0 |
+0.0 |
0.0 |
0 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
73** |
82*** |
59.15 |
73** |
82*** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2007/08 represents the Secretariat
judgment, based on the average price for the first eleven months
and projected price variations during the rest of the season.
*** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in
2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), and on the
ending stocks/consumption ratio in China (Mainland) in 2006/07
and in 2007/08 (estimate). 95% confidence interval: 68 to 95
cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2008/pr_july_08.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
