Washington, DC
August 1, 2008
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World cotton production is
expected to decrease by 5% to 24.9 million tons in 2008/09, due
to declines in both area and yield. This projected decrease is
driven by a fall of more than one million tons in U.S.
production, to 3.1 million tons.
World cotton mill use is expected to decline by 1% in 2008/09 to
26.4 million tons, due to slower global economic growth and
higher prices of cotton relative to polyester.
World imports are expected to increase by 6% to 8.8 million tons
in 2008/09, driven by larger imports by China (Mainland).
Exports from the United States, India and Brazil are expected to
increase.
World cotton stocks are forecast to decrease by 12% to 10.7
million tons in 2008/09. The largest decline in stocks is
expected to occur in the United States, where considerable
supplies that accumulated during the previous two seasons will
fuel exports.
The Secretariat forecasts an increase in the season-average
Cotlook A Index from 73 cents per pound in 2007/08 to 83 cents
per pound in 2008/09 (the 95% confidence interval is between 69
and 97 cents per pound).
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.65 |
26.28 |
24.9 |
122.4 |
120.7 |
114 |
|
Consumption |
26.66 |
26.67 |
26.4 |
122.5 |
122.5 |
121 |
|
Exports |
8.13 |
8.19 |
8.8 |
37.3 |
37.6 |
40 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.41 |
12.10 |
10.7 |
57.0 |
55.6 |
49 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
73 |
82** |
59.15 |
73 |
83** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), and
on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in China (Mainland) in
2006/07 and in 2007/08 (estimate). 95% confidence
interval: 69 to 97 cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2008/pr_august_08.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
