Ottawa, Canada
September 17, 2007
Grains and oilseeds outlook
Total production of grains and
oilseeds (G&O) in Canada in 2007-08 is estimated at about 61
million tonnes
(Mt), slightly lower than 2006-07 and slightly above the 10-year
average. Yields for most crops are estimated
to be near average despite the hot and dry weather in western
and eastern Canada in July. Harvest is well
underway and nearly complete in some regions. The quality of all
crops is expected to be near average with a
better than normal grade distribution. Protein levels in wheat
and barley are expected to be above average,
while the oil content of the canola and flaxseed crops may be
below normal. In western Canada, production is
estimated to be similar to last year at 45 Mt but in eastern
Canada it is estimated to be marginally lower than
last year at 16 Mt.
Statistics Canada’s September 11 estimates of grain stocks in
Canada at July 31, 2007 confirmed AAFC’s
earlier forecasts that ending stocks of G&O for 2006-07 were
significantly lower than 2005-06. Due to lower
carry-in stocks and lower production, the supply of G&O in
Canada for 2007-08 is expected to decrease by
about 8% from last year. Exports are forecast to decrease by
14%, due mainly to lower shipments of wheat,
but domestic use is expected to increase due to increased use of
corn and wheat for ethanol production. Prices
for most crops are expected to be higher than in 2006-07 but
they will continue to be pressured by the strong
Canadian dollar. The major factors to watch are: US and Canadian
crop development and harvest conditions,
the bio-fuel market, ocean freight rates and the Canada/US
exchange rate.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2007/pdf/20367g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook For 2007-08,
total Canadian production of pulse and special crops is
estimated to increase by 14%, from 2006-07, to 4.64 million
tonnes (Mt), based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) July 31
production estimates, except for buckwheat which is an AAFC
forecast. STC’s yield estimates are lower than trend for dry
peas and dry beans, but higher for lentils, chickpeas, mustard
seed, canary seed and sunflower seed. Compared to 2006-07, yield
estimates are lower for dry peas, dry beans, chickpeas and
sunflower seed, but higher for lentils, mustard seed and canary
seed. Crop abandonment is estimated to be lower than normal.
Harvest progress is behind 2006-07, but ahead of normal, with
the dry pea and lentil harvests approaching completion, and most
of the chickpeas and mustard seed have been harvested. Harvest
is also underway for dry beans and canary seed. The
buckwheat and sunflower seed harvests are expected to start in
late September. Quality is expected to be normal, assuming
normal weather conditions during the remainder of the harvest
period. The risk of frost damage is generally low for
unharvested fields due to the advanced stage of development.
Total supply is expected to
decrease by 3% to 5.4 Mt, as the increase in production is more
than offset by lower carry-in stocks. This report incorporates
STC’s carry-out stock estimates for 2006-07 and export data for
all of 2006-07. Exports are forecast to increase slightly, while
domestic use and carry-out stocks decrease. Average prices, over
all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase from
2006-07, for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, mustard seed, canary
seed, sunflower seed and buckwheat, but decrease for chickpeas.
The main factor to watch is weather, especially precipitation,
during the remainder of the harvest period. Other factors to
watch are crop conditions in other major producing regions,
especially the US, Australia, India and Mexico, currency
exchange rates and ocean shipping costs.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2007/pdf/20367p.pdf
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