Washington, DC
October 4, 2007
Source:
U.S. Wheat Associates
by Joe Sowers, Senior Market Analyst
Last week USDA lowered its estimate of this season’s U.S. wheat
harvest by 1.3 MMT, revising production estimates down for
nearly every class. A small increase in the HRW harvest was
offset by large decreases in white wheat, durum and HRS. Put in
the international context of short harvests and tight stocks,
the small revisions appear very significant.
In its Small Grains Summary, a survey performed by the National
Agricultural Statistics Service, released last Friday, USDA
increased the previous estimate for HRW production by 370,000
MT. Total HRW production is now expected to exceed last year by
41 percent or 7.6 MMT.
White wheat production is estimated at 6.2 MMT, nearly 11
percent (700,000 MT) lower than last year. Earlier forecasts
estimated a slight production increase, but surveys showed
planted acreage was down in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Lower
yields in Washington and Idaho offset higher yields and
production in Oregon. The importance of the PNW crop for export
markets is increasing daily as harvest potential continues to
suffer in Australia.
The significance of a 145,000 MT revision in U.S. durum
production is also increased against the backdrop of much lower
durum production in the EU-27 and Canada, the world’s top two
exporters. Although the U.S. durum harvest is estimated to rise
600,000 MT from last year, planted acreage in 2006/07 was
386,000 hectares or 31 percent below the U.S. ten-year average.
The HRS production estimate was revised down by 656,000 MT, but
is still 460,000 MT more than last year as higher yields in the
Dakotas and Montana offset an 11 percent decline in planted
acreage compared to last year.
SRW production was generally unchanged from previous forecasts.
The full report is available at
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/SmalGraiSu/SmalGraiSu-09-28-2007.txt. |
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