Washington, DC
July 2, 2007
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
The Cotlook A Index has increased
significantly since mid-May 2007. Domestic Chinese prices also
increased in June due to tighter domestic supplies and increased
domestic demand. A continued increase in Chinese domestic prices
could result in sales of reserve stocks by the China National
Cotton Reserve Corporation and/or increased Chinese imports.
World cotton production is forecast at 25.3 million tons in
2007/08, slightly lower than this season. World cotton mill use
is projected to increase by 650,000 tons to 26.9 million tons in
2007/08. Asia is expected to consume 4% more cotton in 2007/08
whereas the rest of the world is expected to consume 2% less.
World cotton trade is expected to rebound in 2007/08 to over 9
million tons, up 11% from 2006/07, driven by projected higher
Chinese imports. U.S. exports are expected to jump by almost one
million tons in 2007/08 to 3.7 million tons.
World cotton ending stocks are forecast to decrease by 13% in
2007/08 to 10.6 million tons. The 2007/08 season-average Cotlook
A Index is expected to be above the 2006/07 average.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
24.97 |
25.7 |
25.3 |
114.7 |
118 |
116 |
|
Consumption |
24.91 |
26.2 |
26.9 |
114.4 |
120 |
123 |
|
Exports |
9.75 |
8.2 |
9.1 |
44.8 |
38 |
42 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.70 |
12.2 |
10.6 |
58.3 |
56 |
49 |
|
Stock adjustment |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0 |
0 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
56.15 |
58** |
65*** |
56.15 |
58** |
65*** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A
Index (U.S. cents per pound).
** Not a projection. Average for the first eleven months of
2006/07 (August 1, 2006 to June 30, 2007).
*** The projection for 2007/08 represents the Secretariat's
judgment based on projections for net China (Mainland) trade and
the world-less-China (Mainland) ending stocks-to-use ratio
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2007/pr_july_07.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
