Source: US Wheat Associates Wheat Letter
Joe Sowers, USW Marketing Specialist

Two recent storms replenished soil moisture in much of the drought stricken Southern Plains and this week forecasters predicted more precipitation. And that moisture will help significantly more planted acres of wheat this year. Trade sources this week estimated the winter wheat crop at nearly 18 million hectares (MHa) or nine percent more than last season.

A storm forecast today through the weekend should affect northern Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado. However, crop conditions have not improved much since USDA's last report November 26, 2006. In Texas, 80 percent of the wheat rates fair to excellent. That estimate is down from 86 percent in November, but it is a big step up from November 2005 when only 51 percent of Texas wheat rated fair to excellent.

There is some ice cover in parts of western Kansas that is a concern – and the storm this week may come as freezing rain instead of snow. Aaron Harries, Kansas Wheat Commission Director of Marketing, reports that 92 percent of Kansas wheat rates fair to excellent, unchanged from November and slightly lower than this time last year. “The wheat is dormant and still under several inches of that moisture,” Harries says. “The improvement will come in March when the crop starts growing again.”

The Northern Plains could use more snow, but crop conditions there are better than this time last year. The November USDA figures showed 96 percent of South Dakota’s winter wheat rated fair to excellent compared to 84 percent last year.

SRW producers east of the Mississippi River had too much rain last fall which slowed planting and emergence. At last report, 90 percent of Ohio wheat and 85 percent of Missouri wheat had emerged compared to full emergence last year.

We do know winter wheat acres across the U.S. are up. A Reuters analyst poll published this week predicts winter wheat acreage at 17.9 MHa, up from 16.4 MHa in 2005. The poll suggested an increase of nine percent HRW plantings (13 MHa compared to 11.9 MHa last year), eight percent more SRW (3.2 MHa) and six percent more SW (1.7 MHa). USDA will release its initial estimates for winter wheat plantings on January 12.