Washington, DC
April 5, 2007
Soucrce:
U.S. Wheat Associates Wheat Letter
by Joe Sowers, U.S. Wheat
Associates Market Analyst
By the time all the crop is seeded
later this spring, U.S. producers will be tending five percent
more wheat for the 2007/2008 crop compared to last season.
Winter wheat planted area is up 10 percent but partially offset
by a seven percent decline in non-durum spring wheat plantings.
Meanwhile, the first national report on crop progress issued
this week shows that winter wheat is in the best condition since
1998.
Spring wheat acres expected to fall
A survey of producer intentions
for spring planted crops by USDA’s National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) released last week indicates that
extremely strong corn prices will drive a 15 percent increase in
corn plantings, diverting U.S. spring wheat acres, soybean acres
(down 11 percent) and cotton acres (down 20 percent). The NASS
estimate of a 442,000 hectare (ha) decline in non-durum spring
wheat acreage is at the low end of trade predictions of six to
15 percent. Durum plantings should be up by 49,000 ha.
North Dakota spring-planted wheat typically accounts for more
than half the U.S. total. Superior economic returns for corn,
barley and other crops over HRS will spur a three percent drop
in spring wheat plantings in that state. The NASS survey says
corn acreage will grow by 54 percent in North Dakota, oats by 26
percent and barley acreage by 18 percent. Corn acreage in the
major HRS-producing states of Minnesota and South Dakota will be
up eight percent and nine percent, respectively.
NASS reports actual spring plantings in June.
Winter wheat looking good, bears watching
Producers responded to strong
wheat prices last fall by planting 1.4 million ha more winter
wheat acres and weather conditions so far have been ideal.
According to Informa Economics, “The last year winter wheat
conditions showed an improvement from the fall was in spring
2000. Since 1990, there have been six years when winter wheat
conditions improved during the winter. This year’s [improvement]
is the greatest, increasing five index points.”
According to a NASS crop progress report released this week, 94
percent of the winter wheat crop rates fair to excellent. Last
year at this time only 69 percent of the crop rated fair or
better. Conditions continued to improve through this week after
more rain in the largest HRW states.
Weather is always a concern until harvest however. During a
visit to the USW Washington office last week, Kansas wheat
grower and president of the National Association of Wheat
Growers John Thaemert commented he’s still concerned about a
freeze. Sure enough, unusually cold weather is expected this
weekend with freezing temperatures predicted as far south as
North Central Texas. Jointing wheat can withstand temperatures
around 20 degrees F (-6 C) while heading wheat may be damaged by
readings below 30 degrees F (-1 C). Currently one percent of the
crop in Oklahoma and seven percent of the Texas crop has headed.
Hopefully, the rain that’s also forecast will lessen any freeze
risk.
You can read the NASS Prospective Plantings and Crop Conditions
reports at
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan-03-30-2007.pdf |
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