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USDA planting estimates show spring planted wheat down, total up

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Washington, DC
March 30, 2007

Soucrce: U.S. Wheat Associates Wheat Letter
by Joe Sowers, U.S. Wheat Associates Market Analyst


A survey of farmers’ intentions carried out by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) confirmed Friday an expected decline in non-durum, spring planted wheat as producers shift acreage to corn.

Extremely strong corn prices are anticipated to drive a 15 percent increase in corn plantings, diverting U.S. spring wheat acres, soybean acres (down 11 percent) and cotton acres (down 20 percent), the report said.

The decline in spring wheat offsets an increase in winter wheat plantings, up 10 percent over last year, and in durum plantings, up 6 percent over last year, yielding a 5 percent (3 million acre) increase in wheat acreage of all classes.

The NASS estimate of a 7 percent, 1.1 million acre, decline in non-durum spring wheat acreage, is at the lower end of trade estimates that preceded the report, which were predicting a decline ranging from 6 to 15 percent. An increase of 120,000 acres planted to durum was a surprise as the trade anticipated a decline.

Spring wheat acres in North Dakota account for more than half of the U.S. total. Superior economic returns for corn, barley and other crops over HRS are expected to lead to a 3 percent decline in spring wheat acres.

According to the NASS survey, corn acreage will increase by 54 percent (910,000 acres) in North Dakota, oats by 26 percent (110,000 acres) and barley acreage will rise 18 percent (200,000 acres). Corn acreage is also expected to climb in other major HRS states, such as Minnesota and South Dakota, with farmers reporting intentions to plant 8 percent (600,000 acres) and 9 percent (400,000) more in corn than last year, respectively.

The NASS report is the first official government estimate of the year. An actual spring plantings report will be released in June.

The NASS Prospective Plantings Report can be found at:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan-03-30-2007.pdf

 

 

 

 

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