Washington, DC
March 30, 2007
Soucrce:
U.S. Wheat Associates Wheat Letter
by Joe Sowers, U.S. Wheat
Associates Market Analyst
A survey of farmers’ intentions carried out by USDA’s National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) confirmed Friday an
expected decline in non-durum, spring planted wheat as producers
shift acreage to corn.
Extremely strong corn prices are anticipated to drive a 15
percent increase in corn plantings, diverting U.S. spring wheat
acres, soybean acres (down 11 percent) and cotton acres (down 20
percent), the report said.
The decline in spring wheat offsets an increase in winter wheat
plantings, up 10 percent over last year, and in durum plantings,
up 6 percent over last year, yielding a 5 percent (3 million
acre) increase in wheat acreage of all classes.
The NASS estimate of a 7 percent, 1.1 million acre, decline in
non-durum spring wheat acreage, is at the lower end of trade
estimates that preceded the report, which were predicting a
decline ranging from 6 to 15 percent. An increase of 120,000
acres planted to durum was a surprise as the trade anticipated a
decline.
Spring wheat acres in North Dakota account for more than half of
the U.S. total. Superior economic returns for corn, barley and
other crops over HRS are expected to lead to a 3 percent decline
in spring wheat acres.
According to the NASS survey, corn acreage will increase by 54
percent (910,000 acres) in North Dakota, oats by 26 percent
(110,000 acres) and barley acreage will rise 18 percent (200,000
acres). Corn acreage is also expected to climb in other major
HRS states, such as Minnesota and South Dakota, with farmers
reporting intentions to plant 8 percent (600,000 acres) and 9
percent (400,000) more in corn than last year, respectively.
The NASS report is the first official government estimate of the
year. An actual spring plantings report will be released in
June.
The NASS Prospective Plantings Report can be found at:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan-03-30-2007.pdf |
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