Source: Agriculture and Agrifood Canada

INTRODUCTION

For 2006-07, the production of grains and oilseeds in Canada is estimated to decrease to 61.7 million tonnes (Mt), from 66.7 Mt in 2005-06, vs. the 10-year average of 60 Mt, based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) “July 31 Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops”. On average, yields are estimated to be about 9% below 2005-06. Harvest in western Canada is almost complete, ahead of 2005-06 and ahead of normal. Quality of all crops is expected to be above average, with a better than normal grade distribution. In western Canada, production is estimated to decrease by 10% from 2005-06, to 45.6 Mt as lower yields more-than offset higher harvested area. In eastern Canada, production is estimated to rise by 1% to 16.1 Mt due to higher yields.

This report incorporates STC’s carry-out stock estimates for 2005-06 and final export data for 2005-06, except
for corn and soybeans. Total domestic supply of grains and oilseeds in Canada for 2006-07 is forecast to decrease by 2% from 2005-06, as lower production more than offsets the higher carry-in stocks. Exports and total domestic use are forecast to increase. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease by 23% to near-normal levels. Prices in Canada for all crops will continue to be pressured by the strong Canadian dollar but are expected to be higher than in 2005-06, except for flaxseed and soybeans. The major factors to watch are: US and Canadian corn and soybean crop development and harvest conditions, the biofuel market, ocean freight rates and exchange rates.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2006/pdf/16978.pdf