Source: The Daily - Statistics Canada
Principal field crops
March 2006 (intentions)

Prairie farmers anticipate reducing their canola plantings in favour of more spring wheat and oats, according to
the 2006 first seeding intentions survey. In Ontario and Quebec, grain corn acreage should remain unchanged,
and signs point to a smaller area devoted to soybeans.

Seeding intentions of major grains and oilseeds

The March seeding intentions survey, which covered 17,100 farmers, showed that they have tough decisions to make in 2006 in attempts to determine where their best returns can be found, while they deal with rising costs and maintain cash flow.

Many farmers were not sure what they were going to plant. On the Prairies, this uncertainty was reflected in an anticipated 14.9% increase in summerfallow area. It is projected to rise to 11.6 million acres, just below the
10-year average of 11.9 million acres.

On a positive note, soil moisture conditions are ideal in many parts of the country, hinting at a good start to the 2006 crop.

However, it is important to remember that economic and environmental conditions change constantly, forcing farmers to modify their decisions as planting time approaches.

Oilseed picture mixed

The survey pointed to a mixed picture for oilseeds on the Prairies — a potential decline in canola acreage, but a gain in flaxseed.

Farmers anticipate planting 11.5 million acres of canola, down 14.2% from 2005. The 10-year average for canola is 11.6 million acres.

Projections show the decline in canola, the equivalent of 1.9 million acres, will be shared proportionately by all three Prairie provinces. One factor may be higher input costs for canola compared with the cost of producing alternative crops, despite excellent canola yields last year in Saskatchewan and Alberta and expectations for bio-diesel demand.

Flaxseed plantings are anticipated to rise 7.9% to an estimated 2.2 million acres. This increase is the equivalent of 165,000 more acres of flaxseed, despite a large carry-over from 2005.

Price premiums this spring may have made this hardy crop more attractive in the rotation. Producers in all three Prairie provinces reported strong plantings of flaxseed, with all areas above the five-year average.

Saskatchewan’s projected 1.8 million acres would account for over three-quarters of total flaxseed area.

Spring wheat area on rise, big decline in durum

Prairie farmers anticipated an 11.1% increase in intended spring wheat plantings to an estimated 19.5 million acres. This would be slightly lower than the 10-year average of 19.8 million acres.

Delivery opportunities for some varieties of wheat have been steady this crop year, and recent price spikes on the Chicago Board of Trade may have encouraged seeding intentions. Some farmers were also able to lock in fixed price contracts at relatively attractive prices.

Saskatchewan farmers, who grow over one-half of the spring wheat area on the Prairies, anticipated a 15.8% increase in area to 10.4 million acres.

Manitoba farmers reported an 11.4% gain, and Alberta farmers 3.7%.

Farmers expected to plant much less durum wheat this year, the result of anticipated reduced delivery opportunities for export, as well as poor prices.

Indications are that durum acreage will plunge 30.0% to an estimated 4.1 million acres, well below the 2005 level of 5.8 million acres. The 10-year average is 5.8 million acres.

Barley area declines while oat area jumps

The total area seeded in barley on the Prairies is expected to drop 5.5% to an estimated 9.6 million acres.

Farmers in Saskatchewan anticipate a 12.5% decline to 4.2 million acres of barley, the biggest drop, followed by Alberta with a 1.3% decline to 4.4 million acres. On the other hand, Manitoba farmers, recovering from the 2005 flooding, would plant about 1.0 million acres, an 11.1% increase.

Prairie farmers expected to plant 4.8 million acres of oats in 2006, a 19.9% gain from the 4.0 million acres seeded in 2005.

Manitoba led the way in oats, rebounding from excess water conditions in 2005, with an expected increase of 38.9% to 1.0 million acres. Saskatchewan farmers reported a rise of 26.0%. The area dedicated to oats in Alberta is expected to remain unchanged.

Field pea area edges up

Field pea acreage should rise by a modest 2.3% to 3.5 million acres, well above the 10-year average of 2.8 million acres.

Peas are used in domestic animal rations and are exported. Strong export demand for yellow peas has provided farmers with a solid cash market so far this crop year.

Farmers may also be taking advantage of the reduced need for expensive nitrogen fertilizers and of rotational considerations when planting peas in 2006.

Fewer soybeans, but same level of grain corn, anticipated in the East

Anticipated grain corn acreage in Quebec and Ontario should remain unchanged from 2005, despite low prices and uncertainty, during the survey period, whether Canada’s anti-dumping duty on American corn would be maintained.

Corn growers in Quebec and Ontario reported that they intend to seed 2.6 million acres, slightly below the
10-year average of 2.8 million acres. The soybean seeded area in Ontario and Quebec should decline a modest 42,000 acres to an estimated 2.7 million acres.

In Manitoba, farmers may plant more soybeans as they rebound from the 2005 wet spring that prevented seeding asmuch area as normal. Indications are that the increase could be an incredible 275,000 acres, bringing
the total area to 385,000 acres. However, recent flooding in the Red River valley and the availability of seed may
temper this estimate.

Available on CANSIM: tables 001-0004, 001-0010, 001-0017 to 001-0020.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 3401.
The publication Field Crop Reporting Series: March Intentions of Principal Field Crop Areas, Canada, 2006,
Vol. 85, no. 2 (22-002-XIB, free; 22-002-XPB, $17/$95) is now available. See How to order products.
For further information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact David Burroughs (613-951-5138; dave.burroughs@statcan.ca), or Dave Roeske (613-951-0572; dave.roeske@statcan.ca), Agriculture Division.