Brussels, Belgium
July 28, 2006
The European Commission has
today published its latest report on prospects for
agricultural markets in the EU for the period 2006-2013. The
report covers the market and income prospects for cereals,
oilseeds, meat, eggs, milk and the main dairy products. It
is based on facts available in June 2006 and therefore does
not take account of multilateral trade negotiations. The
outlook for the EU cereal markets is moderately positive for
most products, although structural surpluses, particularly
of maize, could weigh heavily on some central European
markets. The poultry and pig meat sector should also exhibit
relatively favourable medium-term perspectives, while beef
production is expected to decline with a widening of the
trade deficit as a consequence of the CAP reform and strong
competition from the world market. The market balance for
the major dairy products is expected to improve over the
medium term. These projections should lead to an 18 % growth
in EU-25 agricultural income between 2005 and 2013 in real
terms and per labour unit (11 % in the old Member States and
a steady 42.5 % rise for the new Member States).
Prospects for agricultural
markets and income 2006-2013
This publication provides a
picture of the likely medium-term developments of agricultural
markets, based on a certain number of assumptions and on the
statistical information available in the beginning of June 2006.
The report covers the market and income prospects for the period
2006-2013 within the EU for the following products:
cereals, oilseeds, meat, eggs, milk and the main dairy products.
This report does not take into account the potential outcome of
the multilateral trade negotiations within the framework of the
Doha Development Round (the Uruguay Round Agreement on
Agriculture is assumed to remain unchanged).
The medium-term projections
depict an outlook for the EU cereal markets that would
appear moderately positive for most EU cereals thanks to the
expansion of domestic consumption (growth in the livestock
industries and the emerging bioethanol and biomass demand) and
cereal exports. Despite these favourable general conditions, the
further delayed integration of land locked new Member States
into the single market owing to marketing inefficiencies is
identified as a significant downward risk for regional cereal
markets. Structural surpluses, particularly of maize, would
weigh heavily on the Hungarian and Slovakian markets over the
projection period.
The poultry and pig meat
sector should also exhibit relatively favourable medium-term
perspectives, while beef production is expected to
decline with a widening of the trade deficit as a consequence of
the CAP reform and strong competition from the world market.
Total per capita meat consumption is projected to increase by
2.2 % altogether by the end of the forecast period. The EU-25
will continue to be a net exporter of poultry meat, though at a
declining rate, and of pork. The market balance for the major
dairy products is expected to improve over the medium term,
with increasing cheese production and consumption, but lower
availabilities of butter and SMP.
These market projections should
lead to an 18 % growth in EU-25 agricultural income between 2005
and 2013 in real terms and per labour unit (11 % in the old
Member States and a steady 42.5 % rise for the new Member
States). If the overall outlook for EU agricultural markets and
income over the next seven years appears relatively favourable,
it clearly remains subject to some important uncertainties.
The latter relate in particular to the outcome of the Doha
Development Round of trade negotiations and to the risks linked
to animal disease such as Avian Influenza, which could have far
reaching implications for the future pattern of EU agricultural
markets.
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