If agricultural producers haven't been factoring the impact of energy markets on future commodity prices, it's time they did.

Biofuel production is going to weigh heavily on agriculture in Texas and nationally in the coming years, according to Dr. Henry Bryant, a Texas Agricultural Experiment Station economist with the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University.

"One thing that is certain, cheap oil is gone," Bryant said.

No new discoveries in the large oil fields of Saudi Arabia, coupled with expensive offshore discovery for natural gas, will signal higher prices for corn, soybeans and other commodities when factoring biofuel production, he said.

"We see energy as an important thing for agriculture," said Bryant, who spoke at the Texas Plant Protection Conference this week at the College Station Hilton and Conference Center. "Ag products are getting bid away for competing uses, especially animal feeding. Overall, it will make ag products more expensive."

Animal agriculture should soon feel the biggest impact since corn is a main commodity used in ethanol production. That may trigger some animal feeders to switch to corn substitutes to help offset expensive corn prices in the future, Bryant said.

"By no means will the effects of biofuel production be limited to corn and soybeans," he said.

Competition for acres will also be another factor to consider in the future, Bryant said. As corn becomes more expensive, more acres will be diverted to corn.

One of example of a co-product resulting from ethanol production is distiller grain, which can be fed wet or dry, Bryant said. Corn gluten and corn oil are products that will be produced from wet-mill production, he said.

With an increase in corn acres forecasted, cotton could feel some of the effects, Bryant said.

"Cotton is not positioned to benefit as directly from the other commodities as a result of an increase in biofuel production," said Bryant, who anticipates no increases in cotton acres.

Corn prices are forecasted to reach $5 per bushel by 2014. Corn acreage is also expected to increase from approximately 70 million acres to around

85 million acres by 2014, according to forecasts.

The race to produce ethanol in Texas is extensive, Bryant said, with four to five plants are under construction and another three or four recently announced.

"Approximately four plants will be up and running in another year from now," he said.

Most are concentrated in the Panhandle near cattle feeding operations, which will create co-products that can be fed directly, Bryant said.

Food defense was another topic discussed at the conference. Though farms aren't flashy targets for terrorists, attacks can be directed at crops, livestock processing facilities and other sites, said David Arvelo.

small business representative with the southwest regional office of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Enhancing the food safety of these segments will become more urgent in the future, he said.

Arvelo discussed potential agricultural targets of interest to terrorists. Some "attributes of target" include large-batch food production, uniform mixing, and foods with a short shelf life, so there is little time to identify and correct the problem.

There's evidence that terrorists have discussed targeting components of the food sector, Arvelo said.

"This is a real threat," he said. "This is something we're not exaggerating."

A three-pronged approach that includes preparedness, response and recovery is a general approach to food defense, he said. Those that own agricultural production operations are advised to know who their employees are by performing background checks, limiting access to certain restricted areas to selected staff and restricting access to visitors.

Several online tools for operators to use to evaluate their operations and determine vulnerability to terrorists will become available in 2007, Arvelo said.