World cotton supply (beginning stocks plus production) reached a record of 35.7 million tons in 2005/06, almost one million tons higher than in 2004/05 and almost six million tons higher than in 2003/04. World cotton demand is also reaching a record in 2005/06, estimated at 24.5 million tons, 4% higher than in 2004/05. However, with world production expected to exceed demand for the second consecutive season, world cotton stocks are projected to increase to a record of 11.2 million tons by the beginning of 2006/07.

International prices have increased in 2005/06, thanks to record world cotton demand (24.5 million tons). However, the season-average price of 58 cents per pound currently projected by the Secretariat for 2005/06 is only 6 cents higher than the 2004/05 season-average price. The growing world cotton supply is preventing any larger price increase this season, despite record imports by China (Mainland). In addition, international cotton prices continue to trend lower over time due to a decrease in production costs in many countries.

World production is projected up almost 500,000 tons in 2006/07, and the
2006/07 world cotton supply is forecast to increase for the third consecutive season, to a record of 36.7 million tons. The ICAC price model forecasts the season-average Cotlook A Index to remain at about the same level as this season.

WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION

. 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 . Million Tons Million Bales Production 26.29 24.9 25.4 120.8 115 117 Consumption 23.53 24.5 25.3 108.1 113 116 Exports 7.76 9.0 9.0 35.6 41 41 Ending Stocks 10.80 11.2 11.4 49.6 52 53 Cotlook A Index 52.2 58* 61* 52.2 58* 61*

* US cents per pound; the statistical estimates for 2006/07 are based on current estimates of supply and use; 95% confidence intervals extend 12 cents per pound above and below the estimate.

PDF version: http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2006/pr_april_06.pdf      

The International Cotton Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world  cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical information on cotton production technology. Detailed statistics are found bimonthly in COTTON: Review of the World Situation, $160 per year. A monthly outlook by fax is also available for $300 per year or on the Internet for $250 per year. Access to the weekly estimates of world cotton supply and use by the Secretariat is also available on the Internet for $500 per year.