Excerpts

WHEAT

Projected U.S. 2005/06 ending stocks of wheat are down 66 million bushels from last month due to lower production and higher exports.  Total wheat production is 41 million bushels less than last month primarily because of lower yields of other spring wheat.  Projected exports are up 25 million bushels from last month due to less competition from Argentina and strong global demand for high quality wheat.  The 2005/06 projected price range is $2.85 to $3.35 per bushel, up 25 cents from last month because of smaller production, larger exports, and stronger-than-expected prices. 

Projected 2005/06 global wheat production is down slightly from last month, consumption and trade are
nearly unchanged, but ending stocks are down. Production is down 2.2 million tons due mostly to smaller crops in the EU-25 (down 2.3 million), Argentina (down 1.5 million), and the United States.  This is partially offset by larger crops in China (up 2 million tons), Ukraine (up 0.5 million), South Africa, and Moldova.  Projected global trade is nearly unchanged.  The most noteworthy import changes are China (down 1 million tons), the EU-25 (up 0.7 million), and Algeria (up 0.3 million).  Forecast exports rise for Russia (up 1 million tons), the United States, and Ukraine (up 0.5 million), but decline for Argentina (down 1.5 million) and the EU-25 (down 1 million).

Global consumption decreases fractionally with the largest month-to-month changes occurring in Russia (down 1 million tons), the EU-25 (up 0.5 million), and Algeria (up 0.3 million).  Global 2005/06 wheat ending stocks fall slightly with the largest declines forecast for the United States, the EU-25, Argentina, and Russia, which are only partially offset by increases in China (up nearly 1 million tons), as well as smaller increases in the stocks of many other countries.

COARSE GRAINS

Relative to last month, the outlook for 2005/06 corn is for reduced production, lower domestic consumption, smaller stocks, and higher prices.  USDA's first survey-based forecast for 2005 corn production is 10.35 billion bushels, down 435 million bushels from last month's projected crop, which was based on trend yields adjusted for crop conditions.  Projected feed and residual use of corn is down 100 million bushels.  Projections for the other categories of domestic consumption and exports are unchanged.  Corn ending stocks are down 340 million bushels from last month and 210 million lower than the previous year.  Corn prices in 2005/06 are projected to
average $1.80 to $2.20, up 10 cents on each end from last month compared with $2.07 for 2004/05.

The first survey-based forecast for 2005 grain sorghum production is 380 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month's projected crop. Most of the decline is offset by lower domestic consumption and exports.  Grain sorghum ending stocks are down 4 million bushels from last month and 7 million lower than the previous year.  Grain sorghum prices in 2005/06 are projected to average $1.60 to $2.00, up 10 cents on each end from last month compared with $1.75 for 2004/05. 

The global outlook for 2005/06 is for decreased coarse grains production, lower consumption, fractional changes in trade, and a sharp drop in stocks relative to last month.  Smaller crops are projected in the United States, the EU-25 (down 2.5 million tons), Canada, and Ukraine.  Production is up in Tanzania, Kenya, and several other countries. Global coarse grain consumption is down 3.5 million tons with the largest declines occurring in the United States, the EU-25 (down 1.1 million tons), as well as other countries.  Global imports and exports are little
changed.  Global ending stocks drop 8 million tons from last month and are down 29 million from 2004/05.  The largest stocks decline occurs in the United States and the EU-25 (down 1.5 million tons).

One noteworthy change made in the 2004/05 outlook is a 2-million-ton increase in China's corn crop.  China's 2004/05 corn exports are raised 1 million tons to 7 million. 

RICE

USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2005/06 U.S. rice crop is 226.8 million cwt, up 5.8 million cwt from last month's projection, but down 4.1 million cwt from the record crop in 2004/05.  The U.S. 2005/06 average yield is forecast at 6,897 pounds per acre, up 176 pounds per acre from last month, but down just 45 pounds per acre from last year's record.  Long-grain production is forecast at a record 173.0 million cwt, up 3.5 million cwt from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 53.8 million cwt, 2.3 million cwt above last month.  U.S. 2005/06 exports are projected at 121 million cwt, up 2 million cwt from last month, and 12 million cwt above 2004/05. Domestic and residual use is nearly unchanged from a month ago.  Ending stocks are projected at 29.5 million cwt, up 3.9 million cwt from last month.  The season-average farm price is projected at $7.25 to $7.55, down 5 cents per cwt on each end from last month, compared to $7.30 per cwt in 2004/05.

Projected global 2005/06 production, consumption, and ending stocks are lowered from a month ago, while imports and exports are nearly unchanged. World 2005/06 rice production is projected at 405.3 million tons, 4.6 million tons below last month, but 4.2 million tons above 2004/05.  The decline in the world rice crop is due primarily to reduced production in India, which is partially offset by increases for Bangladesh, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States.  World 2005/06 ending stocks are projected at 66.5 million tons, 0.4 million tons below last month, and 8.3 million tons below 2004/05.  These are the lowest ending stocks since 1982/83 and the lowest stocks-to-use ratio since 1974/75.

OILSEEDS

U.S. oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 87.4 million tons, down 1.7 million tons from last month mainly due to reduced soybean yield prospects resulting from dry weather in the eastern Corn Belt.  Soybean yields are forecast at 38.7 bushels per acre, 1.2 bushels below last month's trend yield projection and 3.8 bushels below last year's record yield.  The first USDA survey-based forecast of U.S. soybean production is 2.791 billion bushels, 99 million bushels below the July forecast and 350 million bushels below last year's record crop.  Peanut production is forecast at 5.1 billion pounds, up sharply from last year, while cottonseed is projected to decline 8 percent from last year's record.

Soybean exports and crush are both reduced this month due to reduced supplies and higher soybean prices.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 180 million bushels, down 30 million from last month.  U.S. soybean meal exports for 2005/06 are lowered from last month because of reduced soybean supplies and higher soybean meal prices.  Soybean meal exports are projected at 6.3 million short tons, down 500 thousand tons from last month and 1.1 million below 2004/05.  U.S. soybean oil export prospects are also reduced this month.  Soybean oil ending stocks are reduced 175 million pounds to 1.5 billion pounds.

U.S. season-average soybean prices are projected at $5.50 to $6.50 this month, up 40 cents on both ends of the range in response to tighter U.S. supplies.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $175 to $205 per short ton, up $10 on both ends of the range.  Soybean oil prices are also projected higher this month at 23 to 26 cents per pound.

Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 377.3 million tons, down 1.3 million tons from last month as higher foreign production is more than offset by a decline in the United States.  Foreign rapeseed production is raised this month as increases for Canada and EU-25 more than offset lower production for China.  Foreign sunflower seed production is also raised based on improved prospects for crops in Russia and EU-25.  Other
changes include lower peanut production for China, and lower cottonseed production for Brazil.

Reduced oilseed production and slightly higher crush leave 2005/06 global oilseed ending stocks down 1.8 million tons at 56.1 million tons.  Global oilseed stocks are projected to remain record high despite this month's reduction.

COTTON

This month's U.S. forecasts for 2005/06 include higher production, which is partially offset by lower beginning stocks, generating a total supply that is 3 percent above last month.  Production is raised 1.5 million bales to 21.3 million, reflecting USDA's first survey-based estimate of the crop; the increase from last month is mainly attributable to lower abandonment, with yield marginally higher.  Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are
raised 500,000 bales.  Ending stocks are forecast 4.5 percent higher than last month.
 
The world 2005/06 forecasts also show lower beginning stocks and higher production relative to last month, with ending stocks up about 2 percent. Production is raised in the United States, India, and the African Franc Zone, but reduced in Brazil and Australia.  Marginal increases in consumption and trade reflect changes in several countries.  World stocks are pegged at 49.8 million bales, down 2 percent from the beginning level.

The 2004/05 U.S. and world estimates are revised mainly to reflect new trade information.  Recent data indicate higher imports by China and Thailand, partially offset by lower imports by Mexico.  Exports are raised for the United States and Cote d'Ivoire, but lowered for Uzbekistan.

Complete report with tables, in PDF format:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/reports/waobr/wasde-bb/2005/wasde08.pdf