by Ann Courtmanche, Market Analyst
U.S. Wheat Associates

Winter wheat production for 2004/05 will be down by 10 percent, nearly 5 million metric tons (MMT), from last year’s crop, according the most recent USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service Crop Production report. This reduction puts winter wheat new crop production at 41.7 MMT, down from 46.5 MMT produced in 2003/04. On a class basis, 2004/05 USDA forecasts production at 24.1 MMT for hard red winter wheat, 10.8 MMT for soft red winter wheat and 6.7 MMT for white wheat.

Winter wheat crop production for 2004/05 in Kansas, the largest winter wheat producing state, will decrease 27 percent (3.5 MMT) compared with 2003/04, in part due to a reduction in acreage planted, but also due to lower projected yields. Current projected yields for 2004/05 winter wheat are slightly over 2.6 metric tons per hectare.

Winter wheat production in Oklahoma, the second largest winter wheat producing state, is off 11 percent at 4.3 MMT for 2004/05, compared with 4.9 MMT for 2003/04. Yields are only slightly lower this year, according to the USDA report.

Production in Texas will likely increase 23 percent above 2003/04 to 3.2 MMT for 2004/05, says the report, due to increases in both acres harvested and yields. This increase will make Texas the third largest winter wheat producing state, moving Washington’s rank to fourth place. Washington’s production is forecast to slip to 3.0 MMT in 2004/05, due to slightly fewer acres harvested and lower yields than 2003/04.

Production increases in the eastern states (specifically Delaware, Maryland, South Carolina, and Virginia) are a result of higher yields due to good growing conditions, especially at the time of seeding.

In North Carolina yields are projected higher for 2004/05, and acreage harvested is also projected up. Indeed, if conditions hold, production will jump by 53 percent in North Carolina in 2004/05 according to the USDA report. "My impression is that, in North Carolina, more wheat was planted last fall because of a combination of good weather at seeding and higher prices for wheat," observes wheat producer and U.S. Wheat Associates board member Ron Day.

Other states with projected increases in winter wheat production are California, Illinois, Missouri, Oregon, and Tennessee.

USDA forecasts average U.S. winter wheat yields for 2004/05 at 43.6 bushels per acre (2.9 metric tons per hectare). The report cites yields of 81 bu/ac (5.4 mt/ha) and 75 bu/ac (5.0 mt/ha) for Idaho and California respectively. California’s are significantly higher than 2003/04 estimated yield of 61 bu/ac (4.1 mt/ha). New crop yields for Wyoming ( 22 bu/ac or 1.5 mt/ha) and Colorado (30 bu/ac or 2.0 mt/ha) are forecast below 2003/04 statistics, says the report.

U.S. WHEAT ASSOCIATES PROVIDES WEEKLY HARVEST REPORTS
With the U.S. wheat harvest now underway, U.S. Wheat Associates is now providing reports of testing conducted on samples from the harvest. The Weekly Harvest Report of the year is available on the USW website under the Quality and Inspection tab, at www.uswheat.org.