from USW Wheat Letter
by Ann Courtmanche, U.S. Wheat Associates market analyst

U.S. wheat producers are expected to plant more than 13 million acres of spring wheat this year, bringing the total estimated wheat area planted for 2004 to 59.5 million acres, according to USDA’s Prospective Plantings report released in late March. Total wheat acres are projected down four percent from 2003. While plantings are at their lowest level since 1972, plantings are only two percent below the five-year average of 60.7 million acres.

The spring wheat acres, which includes 12.7 million acres of hard red spring wheat, are down nearly four percent from last year. The plantings are projected lower because producers are shifting acreage out of wheat and into soybeans and corn. The largest decreases in intended acreage planted are in Minnesota and North Dakota, where reductions are estimated at 250,000 and 200,000 acres respectively.

Durum wheat area planted is projected at 2.8 million acres, down five percent from 2003, but above trade estimates that pegged durum plantings down as much as 9 percent from the previous year’s 2.9 million acres. The bulk of the country's durum is planted in six states (Arizona, California, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota), with North Dakota accounting for roughly 70 percent of the total. According to Brian Sorenson, technical director at the Northern Crops Institute, North Dakota's durum acreage is expected to be down 100,000 acres and will likely be replaced by spring wheat.

Winter wheat planted area is projected down more than 3 percent from last year, at 43.4 million acres. This is above the five-year average of 42.9 million acres. The decrease, at least in the southern Great Plains, was caused by dry conditions that continued through seeding last fall. Moisture shortages in Kansas and Colorado remain a concern, according to the report.

The USDA report, conducted in the first two weeks of March, is based on surveys of farmers of the acreage they intend to plant for the 2004 crop year.xx