‘Worldwide adoption of biotechnology in crop production has the potential to generate substantial gains in global welfare’, Dr Brian Fisher, Executive Director of ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics), said today when releasing the report Agricultural Biotechnology: Potential for Use in Developing Countries. ‘But conservative attitudes resulting in bans on production and trade in GM products could erode these gains’, Dr Fisher added.

In the study, ABARE analyses the economic effects on different groups of countries of adopting GM technologies and of trade policies for GM products.

Results from the analysis indicate that global economic gain from a worldwide full adoption of biotechnology in crop production could amount to US$210 billion a year, by 2015. Potential restrictions on production and trade in GM crops in the European Union are estimated to reduce this gain by US$43 billion to US$167 billion. If, in addition, poorer developing countries failed to adopt the technology, the world gain could decline to US$134 billion.

‘However, the negative impacts of the EU policies on adopting regions’ incomes are estimated to be relatively minor’, Dr Fisher explained. ‘In contrast, the impacts of EU restrictions on the use of GM technologies on the European Union itself could be substantial.’

The largest percentage increases in gross national product (GNP) resulting from the introduction of GM technologies are expected to occur in developing countries — ranging from 0.5 per cent for middle income regions to 2.1 per cent for low income regions. Increases in high income countries are estimated to be under 0.2 per cent of their GNP. ‘If Australia and New Zealand elected not to use the technologies, they could face combined economic losses of US$1.1–1.4 billion a year’, Dr Fisher said.

‘The relatively larger gains available to developing countries highlights the potentially significant role that agricultural biotechnology could play in alleviating the problems of food shortages in these countries’, Dr Fisher said. ‘Moreover, by harvesting more from the same area of land the need to convert land from natural ecosystems into cultivation would diminish — a highly desirable outcome for the global environment’, he added.