‘Domestic demand for feed is expected to grow strongly over the next five years’, ABARE’s acting Deputy Executive Director, Rhonda Treadwell, said today when releasing the report Feed Grains: Future Supply and Demand in Australia. ‘In the aftermath of last season’s drought that caused regional shortages of grain for Australia’s livestock feeding industries, this report highlights the regions and industries where growth in demand for feed grains is likely to occur and the availability of feed grain supplies to meet this growing demand.’

‘Demand for feed from the cattle feedlot industry is projected to grow by 29 per cent between 2003-04 and 2007-08, with feed consumption in the pig industry projected to expand by 24 per cent. Strong growth for feed grains will also occur in the broiler industry, up by an estimated 15 per cent, and the dairy industry, up 13 per cent’, she said.

Given the predominance of the cattle feedlot industry in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, around a third of the growth in demand for feed grains is projected to occur in these regions by 2007-08. Nearly a quarter of the growth in demand is likely to occur in south west New South Wales and north west Victoria, regions where there are strong concentrations of pig enterprises.

‘By 2007-08, with average seasonal conditions, over 80 per cent of feed grains grown in eastern Australia is likely to be consumed locally. Given the variability in Australian grain production, east coast livestock feeders will be more reliant on grain supplies from Western and South Australia and possibly imports to meet their grain requirements. At present, over 85 per cent of feed grain availabilities in Western and South Australia are exported and less than 5 per cent of supplies from these states are shipped to east coast markets’, Ms Treadwell said.

The key issues confronting Australian feed markets are the reliability of feed supplies and the competitiveness of the livestock industries. This report also provides estimates of the impacts of improved feed grain availability and reduced interregional transport costs. Ms Treadwell added that, ‘Analysis such as this provides both industry and government with a tool to improve strategic planning and decision making’.

The results from the ABARE study were derived from a regional feed demand and allocation model developed within ABARE. Financial support for this project was provided by the Grains Research and Development Corporation.