A joint Special Report on the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Zimbabwe, was released today.The report is based on an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the country from 21 April to 10 May 2003.

Highlights

Although national cereal production is considerably up on last year, a significant food gap remains, particularly affecting those who lost their crops mainly due to erratic weather in different parts of the country.Coping mechanisms are seriously stressed or largely exhausted after the severe shortages of last year.

The 2002 Population Census shows a population figure of 11.635 million. This is considerably lower than 13.018 million used in last year's report,which was based on previous projections. Based on the latest census which also indicates the population growth rate to be 1.1percent per annum, the mid-2003/04 (April-March) population used in calculating aggregate food requirement is 11.77 million.

Cereal production for consumption in 2003/04 is estimated at 980 000 tonnes, which is 41 percent higher than last year's, but 51 percent below the 2000/01 harvest, which was itself significantly below average.

Production of maize, the main staple, estimated at 803 000 tonnes, is 61 percent up on last year, but 46 percent lower than in 2000/01.

The major causes of the much lower than normal production of cereals this year include erratic rainfall, limited availability of seed and fertilizer, particularly in view of two or three replantings needed in many areas, and the newly settled farmers not being able to utilize all the land due to lack of adequate capital and inputs, or collateral to procure them. Following the land reform programme, the large-scale commercial sector now produces only about one tenth of its output in the 1990s.

Cereal import requirement for the marketing year 2003/04 is estimated at 1.287 million tonnes, of which maize accounts for 980 000 tonnes. Given the acute shortage of foreign exchange, the Mission estimated that GOZ cereal imports are unlikely to exceed 370 000 tonnes (of which 174 000 tonnes have already been contracted). In the continued absence of private sector imports, this would leave a deficit of 610 000 tonnes of maize to be met by emergency food aid. Against this requirement 120 000 tonnes are in the pipeline, leaving 490 000 tonnes to be covered by new contributions. In addition, imports of wheat and rice estimated at 298 000 tonnes and 9 000 tonnes respectively, will need to be covered on a commercial basis.

The Government controlled price of maize meal was raised almost four-fold in late May. This will greatly limit access to available supplies for the most vulnerable people. The Mission estimates that 4.4 million people in rural areas and 1.1 million in urban areas will require food assistance in 2003/04.

There is also a severe shortage of maize seed in Zimbabwe, which if not addressed will greatly limit plantings in the coming season. Appropriate varieties of maize and also small grain seeds need to be sourced immediately for delivery in September 2003.