Australia’s winter crop production is forecast to be nearly 37.6 million tonnes in 2003-04 — 20.6 million tonnes more than last season’s drought affected crop and second only to the 39.3 million tonne harvest of 2001-02’, ABARE’s Executive Director, Dr Brian Fisher, said today when releasing the December issue of the Australian Crop Report.

Compared with the drought affected 2002-03 crop, wheat production is forecast to rise by 138 per cent to around 23.9 million tonnes, barley by 109 per cent to 7.7 million tonnes, canola by 68 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes, and pulses by 81 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes.

Although the production estimate for the Australian winter crop for 2003-04 is up on the forecast in September, production outcomes by state have changed considerably. According to Dr Fisher, ‘Western Australia has experienced a dramatic turnaround from last year’s drought, with total grain production forecast to be a record 14.4 million tonnes.’ Similarly production in Victoria and South Australia is also expected to be up significantly, reaching 5.8 and 7.4 million tonnes respectively, their second biggest crops on record.

Winter crop production in New South Wales, will be up considerably on last year, but is expected to be lower than was forecast in September. Total winter grain production is forecast to be up by 138 per cent to 7.9 million tonnes. Dry weather, frost and disease, and rain and hail late in the season all contributed to the New South Wales crop falling well short of its potential.

With harvest near completion, Queensland winter crop production is estimated to be 1.3 million tonnes, up 60 per cent from last year.

Dr Fisher did note that, ‘Although production has turned around dramatically from last year, there was some damage to crops, particularly in New South Wales, Queensland and to a lesser extent in Victoria and South Australia, from hot dry winds in September and isolated pockets of frost and disease during October and early November’. He added, ‘Some crops in the southern regions of Australia have also recently suffered from rain and hail damage, which is likely to adversely affect final yields and grain quality.’

Recent rainfall across much of the summer cropping areas is expected to be beneficial for the sowing and establishment of summer crops in 2003-04. Dr Fisher said that, ‘The total summer crop area is forecast to rise by 19 per cent to 1.3 million hectares in 2003-04. This is despite shortages of irrigation water, which have constrained plantings of cotton and rice in 2003-04’. He added that, ‘Given average seasonal conditions and yields, summer crop production in 2003-04 is forecast to increase by 30 per cent to 3.7 million tonnes.’

For copies of the Australian Crop report please visit the ABARE website www.abareconomics.com or contact (02) 6272 2010.