U.S. planting seed exports during the first quarter of the 2002/03 marketing year (July-September 2002) were $166 million, up 18% from the same period last year. September is still very early in the season; most U.S. seed exports typically occur between November and March. Based on ten-year averages of first-quarter seed exports relative to marketing year totals by seed category and geographic region, MY 2002/03 exports would appear to be heading for record total of $965 million, up from $824 million in MY 2001/02. On closer inspection, however, unusually high corn seed exports to two markets – Southern Africa and France -- explain a large part of the increase and may not predict future sales.

Yellow corn seed exports to Southern African countries (mainly Zambia, South Africa and Mozambique) were $11 million during the first quarter of MY 2002/03, compared to only $1 million during the same period last year. MY 2001/02 total U.S. yellow corn seed exports to the region totaled $14 million, over half of which occurred in the final quarter of the marketing year (mainly to Zimbabwe and South Africa). Planting is underway in the region, and the large import demand reflects lower domestic supplies, as last spring’s harvest was very poor in Southern Africa. It is unclear at this time whether the shipments were donations or commercial sales.

Yellow corn seed exports to France reached $5 million (or 2,560 tons) in September. Historically, corn seed exports to France do not begin until October and are spaced out rather evenly through February. This September’s shipment is large, considering total U.S. corn seed exports to France were $21 million last year and only $11 million the year before. Corn seed is the most important U.S. seed export to France, and the U.S. has traditionally held a leading share of France’s corn seed import market. Last year, however, the U.S. lost market share to Hungary, which took the lead, and Chile (see Post report on FAS website), perhaps due to biotech concerns.