After three consecutive years of decline, U.S. planting seed exports are expected to finish MY 2001/02 (July-June) up 8% to $814 million, thanks to a 38% increase in exports to Mexico (primarily field crops, vegetable and grass seed exports) and a 7% recovery of exports to the EU (increased demand in Italy, France and Spain offset decreases elsewhere).

Since 1997/98, U.S. seed exports became increasingly dependent on expanding North American markets, as EU and South American import markets shrank. Mexico is the world’s largest planting seed import market outside the U.S. and EU, worth well over $200 million and growing. The U.S. has an 80-86% share of Mexico’s seed imports, and Mexico is our top export market. This year, Mexico accounted for almost 30% of U.S. seed exports. Vegetable seeds account for about 40% of Mexico’s seed imports, half of that is from the U.S. and represents one-third of U.S. seed exports to Mexico. In MY 2001/02, U.S. exports of sorghum / sudan grass seed to Mexico went from $3 million to $37 million. Soybean seed made a startling comeback this marketing year, going from over $5 million to over $32 million. Corn seed also did well, going from $40 million last MY to over $53 million in MY 2001/02.

Exports to Canada valued about $123 million, down 13% from last year’s $142 million. Despite the fall in total seed exports to Canada, bean seed exports to Canada increased nearly 20%. In MY 2000/01, the U.S. enjoyed a 78% share of Canada’s seed imports.

Regarding the EU, corn seed exports to Italy and France, and lentil and navy bean seed exports to Spain, were almost solely responsible for the overall trend reversal in MY 2001/02, as most other trade continued to decline. Corn seed exports to France went from $12 million to $22 million; to Italy from $13 million to $17 million, and leguminous vegetable seed exports to Spain are up 3-fold to over $4.5 million. Seed exports to the Netherlands, our largest EU market in MY 2000/01, are down more than 10% to nearly $32 million. Exports to the Netherlands of all seed types have dropped steadily since 1997/98. Last MY, the U.S. supplied about 34% of EU seed imports from non-EU countries.

In Asia, increasing U.S. seed exports to China and Korea have offset falling demand in Japan over the past five years. These three countries combined account for 85% of U.S. exports to East and S.E. Asia. This year, interestingly, improvements in exports to Japan and Korea offset a drop in exports to China. Sunflower planting seed exports to China almost disappeared this year, from over $2 million in MY 2000/01. Corn seed exports to China are also down dramatically, as well as alfalfa and unspecified forage seeds. Grass seed exports to China have continued their impressive growth, with the notable exception of Kentucky Blue Grass (KBG), which is down a surprising 40%. Questions have been raised about a possible unjustified SPS barrier against U.S. KBG seed, but it is important to note that China’s imports of KBG seed from Denmark, its other, though much less important supplier, are also down sharply this year. The long slide in exports to Japan has been in field crop seeds. That trade appears to have stabilized finally in MY 2001/02, but grass and forage seed trade, which has been constant, dropped by about 20% this year. On the other hand, vegetable seed did well. Broccoli seed exports to Japan jumped from $4 million to $7 million in MY 2001/02. This appears to be a promising growth area, considering that the U.S. exported almost no broccoli seed to Japan as recently as 1998/99.

U.S. planting seed exports to South America continued to slide, losing another 12% this MY to about $46 million. That’s down from $125 million in MY 1997/98. Field crop seeds account for almost all of this decrease, down by more than 30% in all of our major South American field crop seed markets: Venezuela, Argentina, Chile and Colombia.