Patancheru, India
March 25, 2009
Modeling studies undertaken by the
International Crops Research
Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) on the
potential impact of climate change on dryland crops show that
the drop in yields can be minimized through the use of adapted
and improved crop varieties plus soil and water management
innovations. The interventions can be further strengthened
through developing improved varieties and hybrids that are
better targeted for climate change adaptation including
enhancing capacities of the farming communities.
ICRISAT studies show that climate change will modify the length
of the growing period across the semi-arid tropics of Asia and
sub-Saharan Africa, but this can be dealt with by re-targeting
and re-deploying the existing crop varieties.
The impact of climate change on dryland crops is expected to be
two-fold – there would be an increase in temperature, and there
would be increased frequency of droughts and floods. ICRISAT
studies show that predicted temperature increases have greater
negative impacts on crop production than relatively small (plus
or minus 10%) changes in rainfall.
According to Dr William Dar, Director General of ICRISAT, better
formulated and targeted policies that facilitate and support the
conduct and adoption of agricultural innovation today assume
even greater urgency. Not only will they improve the welfare of
rural population today but will do a great deal to cope with the
impacts of future climate change.
Allocation of improved financial resources and policy support to
agricultural research to enable dryland crops to overcome the
adverse impacts of climate change will help the poor farmers of
the semi-arid tropics to sustain their productivity and their
incomes in the medium- and long-term, Dr Dar said.
ICRISAT studies have generated a “hypothesis of hope”, which
states:
- The impact of climate
change on the yields under low input agriculture is likely
to be minimal as other factors will continue to provide the
overriding constraints to crop growth and yield.
- The adoption of currently
recommended improved crop, soil and water management
practices, even under climate change, will result in
substantially higher yields than farmers are currently
obtaining in their low input systems.
- The adaptation of better
‘temperature-adapted’ varieties could result in the almost
complete mitigation of climate change effects that result
from temperature increases.
ICRISAT’s Operational Research
Plan (ORP) to deal with climate change adaptation in the
semi-arid tropics is based on a two-fold objective:
- Unless risk averse and
vulnerable farming communities in the semi-arid tropics
are empowered to cope better with current
season-to-season rainfall variability through improved
climate risk management, adapting to future climate
change will be a daunting challenge for most and perhaps
impossible for many.
- Since a lead time of
many years is required to produce ‘finished products’ of
adapted germplasm, ICRISAT’s research is combining ex
ante (before the event) assessments of the impacts from
climate change scenarios on the performance of the
Institute’s mandate crops. These assessments will
project what are the required crop characteristics that
will reduce the negative and exploit the positive
impacts of climate change.
The crops on which ICRISAT works –
pearl millet, sorghum, chickpea, groundnut and pigeonpea – are
by themselves hardy and drought tolerant. By strengthening these
crops to be resilient to withstand the negative impacts of
climate change, ICRISAT is ensuring that the poor dryland farmer
copes with it and sustains his/her agricultural productivity and
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