Australia
March 3, 2009
Farm export earnings are forecast
to rise in 2008-09 and 2009-10, despite the global financial
crisis. This and other commodity projections out to 2013-14 are
contained in the March issue of Australian commodities released
today by Phillip Glyde, Executive Director,
ABARE.
“A substantial increase in crop production combined with a
significant depreciation of the Australian dollar is expected to
support farm export earnings in the short term,” Mr Glyde said.
However, total earnings from Australia’s commodity exports are
forecast to fall by 17 per cent to $162 billion in 2009-10,
following an estimated rise of 33 per cent to $196 billion in
2008-09.
This expected fall in the value of total commodity exports
mainly reflects a forecast decline of 22 per cent in export
earnings from mineral resources to $126 billion in 2009-10 from
$161 billion in 2008-09.
Farm exports are forecast to increase by 12 per cent to $30.8
billion in 2008-09, before rising further by a further 4 per
cent to $32.1 billion in 2009-10. This updated forecast for
2008-09 represents an upward revision from the forecast of $29.4
billion released by ABARE in the December issue of Australian
commodities.
Farm products for which export earnings are forecast to increase
in 2009-10 include wheat, barley, canola, lupins, peas, raw
cotton, sugar and lamb.
For energy and minerals, significantly lower export earnings are
forecast in 2009-10 mainly as a result of expected lower
contract prices for bulk commodities and weaker prices for base
metals and aluminium.
“The value of energy exports is forecast to fall by 34 per cent
to $51 billion in 2009-10, largely driven by sharply lower
forecast prices for oil and coal,” Mr Glyde said.
For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to
decline by 11 per cent to $75 billion in 2009-10. An expected
significant fall in prices for Australian iron ore is projected
to account for the majority of this decline.
The value of Australian commodity exports is projected to
gradually increase from 2010-11. By 2013-14, total commodity
export earnings are projected to reach $175 billion in 2008-09
dollar terms. |
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